Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:11:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3E 0x3e77…d01b crypto 1031 markets active 0h ago coverage 160d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 160d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$166 (-2%) realized −$158 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate76%782W / 242L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$27
14 days+$27
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$20
other 8% −$28
sports 4% −$12
world 3% −$1
economics 2% +$5
tech 2% +$3
culture 1% +$1
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 206 +8.1% -2.2% 76% 72% -1.4%
≤30d 206 +8.1% -2.2% 76% 72% -1.4%
≤90d 206 +8.1% -2.2% 76% 72% -1.4%
all 1024 +5.5% -4.6% 76% 39% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 39% -9.9%
10% -13.7% 28% -18.5%
15% -22.1% 21% -26.4%
20% -29.7% 16% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$158
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses782 / 242
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1024 / 1031
History coverage160d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1024 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Up 62¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+61%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 88¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 60¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-96%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 61¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.95 · official $7.34 · 3500 history records