Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:26:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3E 0x3e77…e626 crypto 490 markets active 4h ago coverage 341d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 340d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,143 (+7%) realized +$2,762 · open +$381
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate48%225W / 248L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$2,341now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$63
7 days+$513
14 days+$612
30 days+$786
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 42% +$1,614
other 30% −$71
crypto 15% +$256
tech 6% +$797
politics 5% −$24
world 2% −$140
sports 1% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -13.3% -21.5% 40% 13% -3.8%
≤30d 62 -5.6% -14.6% 45% 21% -1.9%
≤90d 202 +1.6% -8.1% 46% 24% -2.0%
all 473 +7.9% -2.4% 48% 33% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 33% -4.8%
10% -11.7% 25% -13.9%
15% -20.2% 20% -22.2%
20% -28.0% 16% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$19 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

341d coverage
Net worth$2,341
Realized+$2,762
Unrealized+$381
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses225 / 248
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions17
Markets (closed)473 / 490
History coverage341d ⚠
Avg bet$87
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 473 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? No 79¢ 99¢ $422 $529 +$107 (+25%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June? No 61¢ 99¢ $298 $485 +$187 (+63%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June? No 63¢ 95¢ $166 $253 +$86 (+52%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in June? No 65¢ 99¢ $154 $234 +$80 (+52%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Down 74¢ 98¢ $149 $196 +$47 (+32%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? No 80¢ 98¢ $161 $196 +$34 (+21%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in June? No 69¢ 94¢ $103 $142 +$39 (+38%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? No 75¢ 84¢ $103 $116 +$12 (+12%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? No 90¢ 99¢ $90 $99 +$9 (+10%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? No 82¢ 89¢ $41 $44 +$4 (+9%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 27¢ 6¢ $117 $26 −$91 (-78%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? Yes 28¢ 14¢ $18 $10 −$9 (-48%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? No 80¢ 81¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Up 32¢ 2¢ $64 $4 −$60 (-94%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-85%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? Down 8¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-99%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+55%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 17? Jun 17 $188 +$12 +6%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $882 −$22 -2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 -4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 17? Jun 17 $207 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 17? Jun 17 $12 −$2 -20%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $419 +$5 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 17? Jun 17 $92 −$3 -3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -50%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$1 -7%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$5 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 15? Jun 15 $377 +$59 +16%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $218 −$6 -3%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $1,070 +$32 +3%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 15? Jun 15 $194 +$7 +3%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 15? Jun 15 $15 +$1 +8%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 15? Jun 15 $67 +$42 +63%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $18 +$2 +14%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $715 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -25%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $36 +$2 +6%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $745 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -86%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $17 −$1 -5%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -23%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 15 $11 −$1 -8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $30 −$14 -45%
Will there be exactly 5 games played during the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $354 +$57 +16%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $12 −$7 -53%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 12? Jun 12 $486 +$27 +6%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $705 on June 12? Jun 12 $88 +$2 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 12? Jun 12 $483 −$2 -0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $120 +$151 +126%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $46 −$16 -35%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$2 -36%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $709 +$4 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 12? Jun 12 $207 −$3 -1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $952 +$73 +8%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $355 +$15 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $421 +$115 +27%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $715 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $4 $0 -0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of May 25 2026? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,600 (HIGH) in June? Jun 08 $100 +$103 +102%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May? May 30 $1 $0 +42%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of May 25 2026? May 30 $3 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 17? SELL No 0¢ $1 4h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 62¢ $35 6h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 62¢ $16 6h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 62¢ $22 6h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 62¢ $5 6h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 62¢ $12 6h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 60¢ $3 6h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 3¢ $0 7h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 3¢ $1 7h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 37¢ $37 7h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 37¢ $14 7h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 63¢ $2 7h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 5¢ $1 7h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 5¢ $0 7h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 5¢ $0 7h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 5¢ $0 7h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 5¢ $0 7h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 5¢ $0 7h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 5¢ $0 7h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 25¢ $4 7h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 31¢ $4 8h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 20¢ $4 8h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 14¢ $1 8h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 12¢ $2 8h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 10¢ $2 8h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 5¢ $0 8h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 5¢ $0 8h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 5¢ $0 8h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 5¢ $0 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,341.13 · official $2,338.55 (match) · 3500 history records