Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:48:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3E
0x3e75…7a8b
politics · 115 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$79 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$82 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$29
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses9 / 105
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)114 / 115
History coverage109d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 1 History 114 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies Grizzlies 25¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Mavericks vs. Nuggets Mavericks 16¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Jazz vs. Bucks Jazz 22¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Jazz vs. 76ers Jazz 23¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Pacers vs. Magic Magic 87¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Mavericks 26¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bulls vs. Warriors Warriors 69¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Knicks Knicks 39¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $256 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $33 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $248 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $199 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $245 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $221 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $206 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $415 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 06 $33 $0 +0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $391 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $383 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $478 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $200 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $225 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $199 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $423 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $490 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $254 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $196 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 26 $190 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $253 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $185 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $663 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $175 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $211 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $220 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 21 $251 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $235 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $216 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $233 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $442 −$1 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 20 $185 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $213 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $237 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $244 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $201 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $201 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $230 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $195 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 17 $201 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $255 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $235 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $194 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $239 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $263 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 14 $237 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $196 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 13 $249 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 45% −$12
politics 41% −$14
sports 4% −$53
crypto 4% −$1
tech 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $38 3d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $38 11d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 11d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 13d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $248 20d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $248 25d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $199 31d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $199 37d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $245 37d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $245 38d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $221 38d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $221 38d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $206 38d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $206 38d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $154 39d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $154 40d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $195 40d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $195 40d
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $194 40d
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $194 41d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $189 41d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $189 41d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $225 41d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $225 42d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $200 42d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $200 43d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $163 43d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $163 43d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $226 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 103 -1.0% -10.4% 5% 2% -9.6%
all 114 -4.8% -13.9% 8% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 4% -9.8%
10% -22.1% 3% -18.4%
15% -29.6% 3% -26.3%
20% -36.5% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.99 · official $28.99 (match) · 314 history records