Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:51:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e74…d14b other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 279d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% −$2
other 29% +$11
politics 12% $0
crypto 11% +$2
culture 8% $0
sports 7% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -9.2% -17.8% 0% 0% -15.0%
≤30d 9 -2.5% -11.8% 22% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 9 -2.5% -11.8% 22% 0% -10.1%
all 36 +10.1% -0.4% 33% 3% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.4% 3% -8.3%
10% -9.9% 3% -17.1%
15% -18.6% 3% -25.1%
20% -26.6% 3% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.5 per $1 lost it wins $4.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

279d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage279d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 23 $11 −$3 -28%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $33 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $36 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $17 +$1 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $91 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $32 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $39 $0 -0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 02 $16 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $103K in September? Oct 02 $26 +$2 +10%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $70 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 30 $16 $0 -0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 29 $2 $0 +6%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 27 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $16 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Towelie make a trade during South Park's prediction market episod Sep 25 $3 +$11 +372%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 23 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Sep 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $31 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $34 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $34 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 33h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $17 37h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $17 42h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $18 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $15 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $33 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $37 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $36 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $18 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $17 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $14 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $7 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $20 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $35 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $35 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $35 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $35 21d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $32 21d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 78¢ $32 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $32 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $12 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $21 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $7 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.14 · official $31.14 (match) · 101 history records