Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:25:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e74…19fa sports 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$266 (-15%) realized −$266 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate54%20W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$291
world 7% +$8
other 3% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -47.9% -52.9% 25% 0% -20.3%
≤30d 11 -8.3% -17.0% 45% 27% -22.9%
≤90d 37 -6.6% -15.5% 54% 41% -24.7%
all 37 -6.6% -15.5% 54% 41% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 41% -24.7%
10% -23.6% 27% -31.9%
15% -31.0% 19% -38.5%
20% -37.7% 14% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$29 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$266
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses20 / 17
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage41d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $7 −$3 -48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $11 −$6 -51%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $41 +$3 +7%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $9 +$11 +117%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 Jun 04 $215 −$93 -43%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5 May 31 $41 +$4 +10%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5 May 31 $19 $0 -1%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 May 29 $21 +$5 +26%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5 May 27 $48 −$14 -29%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5 May 27 $93 +$19 +20%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 225.5 May 26 $6 $0 +4%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5 May 26 $8 +$2 +24%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5 May 25 $5 −$4 -79%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $5 −$3 -59%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 May 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $5 +$7 +147%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $114 +$7 +6%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 22 $10 −$9 -90%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 May 22 $14 +$6 +41%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 May 22 $14 −$3 -21%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5 May 21 $22 +$3 +13%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5 May 21 $22 −$1 -5%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5 May 20 $7 +$2 +29%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 May 20 $100 +$5 +5%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 May 20 $10 −$6 -60%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 May 20 $7 −$3 -45%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 May 19 $142 −$81 -57%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5 May 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 19 $84 −$58 -69%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 201.5 May 18 $117 +$63 +54%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5 May 18 $106 +$44 +42%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 May 18 $152 +$4 +3%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 16 $1 +$1 +56%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 213.5 May 16 $40 +$9 +21%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 210.5 May 16 $50 +$7 +14%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5 May 16 $3 +$2 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 46m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 49m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $7 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 89¢ $44 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $41 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $11 2h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 22h
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 46¢ $9 21d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 SELL Over 38¢ $52 21d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 SELL Under 42¢ $70 21d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 BUY Under 59¢ $101 21d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 BUY Over 81¢ $6 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 BUY Over 81¢ $11 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 BUY Over 81¢ $16 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 BUY Over 81¢ $16 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 BUY Over 81¢ $16 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 BUY Over 81¢ $16 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 BUY Over 81¢ $16 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 BUY Over 81¢ $16 22d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5 SELL Over 76¢ $45 25d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5 SELL Over 62¢ $18 25d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5 BUY Over 68¢ $7 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5 BUY Over 68¢ $7 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5 BUY Over 69¢ $7 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5 BUY Over 69¢ $7 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5 BUY Over 62¢ $6 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5 BUY Over 62¢ $6 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5 BUY Over 62¢ $6 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5 BUY Over 69¢ $7 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5 BUY Over 70¢ $7 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 107 history records