Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:53:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e73…8470 sports 193 markets active 2h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,192 (-4%) realized −$8,247 · open +$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate60%108W / 72L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,198per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$710now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days−$286
14 days−$218
30 days−$218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$8,181
economics 2% −$219
other 1% +$205
politics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -20.7% -28.2% 30% 26% -37.6%
≤30d 32 +12.4% +1.7% 34% 28% -25.2%
≤90d 34 +5.8% -4.2% 32% 26% -28.6%
all 180 -3.4% -12.6% 60% 21% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 21% -11.9%
10% -21.0% 16% -20.4%
15% -28.6% 12% -28.1%
20% -35.6% 8% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$1,950) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$251 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$710
Realized−$8,247
Unrealized+$55
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses108 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions14
Markets (closed)180 / 193
History coverage239d
Avg bet$1,198
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 94¢ $70 $94 +$24 (+34%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 86¢ $79 $86 +$8 (+9%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 78¢ $66 $78 +$12 (+17%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 76¢ $54 $76 +$22 (+42%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 66¢ $72 $66 −$6 (-9%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 62¢ $19 $62 +$44 (+229%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 62¢ $31 $62 +$30 (+98%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 44¢ $64 $44 −$20 (-30%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 40¢ $56 $40 −$16 (-29%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 34¢ $21 $34 +$12 (+60%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 26¢ $68 $25 −$42 (-62%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 22¢ $26 $22 −$4 (-13%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 20¢ $27 $20 −$6 (-24%)
World Cup: Winless Team? No 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
World Cup: Wednesday - Will Denmark beat Australia? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $36 −$27 -75%
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $91 +$9 +10%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $69 +$31 +46%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $17 +$83 +474%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $345 −$331 -96%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $39 +$61 +158%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $28 −$14 -51%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $57 +$43 +76%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$65 +263%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $23 −$22 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8 +$2 +18%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 +$17 +135%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 +$91 +982%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $167 +$13 +8%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $29 +$71 +250%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $37 −$36 -98%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $21 −$21 -98%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Mar 25 $36 −$29 -79%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 25 $37 −$35 -94%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 17 $50 −$43 -86%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 03 $90 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 27 $125 −$25 -20%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 15 $68 +$32 +47%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 13 $268 −$104 -39%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN Freecs (BO3) - LCK Cup Play-In Feb 07 $315 −$315 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN Freecs - Game 2 Winner Feb 07 $760 −$607 -80%
Pacers vs. Bucks Feb 07 $1,950 −$250 -13%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN Freecs (BO3) - LCK Cup Play-In Feb 07 $495 +$5 +1%
LoL: DRX vs OKSavingsBank BRION (BO3) - LCK Cup Play-In Feb 07 $1,722 +$26 +2%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN Freecs - Game 1 Winner Feb 06 $544 −$418 -77%
LoL: DRX vs OKSavingsBank BRION - Game 1 Winner Feb 06 $970 +$29 +3%
LoL: DRX vs OKSavingsBank BRION - Game 2 Winner Feb 06 $466 −$465 -100%
76ers vs. Lakers Feb 06 $1,530 −$715 -47%
Hornets vs. Rockets Feb 06 $2,387 +$110 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 9¢ $9 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 35¢ $36 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 10¢ $10 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $34 10h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 11¢ $11 39h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 15¢ $15 46h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 17¢ $17 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $14 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $143 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $79 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $17 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $11 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $8 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $61 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 6¢ $6 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 22¢ $4 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 22¢ $18 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 80¢ $8 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 73¢ $24 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $25 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 5d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $710.15 · official $710.15 (match) · 1259 history records