Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:03:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3E 0x3e6b…847e sports 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$51 (+16%) realized +$51 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%59W / 57L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$0
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$64
other 3% −$10
crypto 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +3.1% -6.7% 50% 50% -6.0%
≤30d 43 -1.4% -10.8% 42% 42% +12.6%
≤90d 116 +6.7% -3.5% 51% 51% +8.3%
all 116 +6.7% -3.5% 51% 51% +8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 51% +8.3%
10% -12.7% 48% -2.1%
15% -21.2% 46% -11.5%
20% -28.9% 43% -20.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses59 / 57
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)116 / 116
History coverage48d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 116 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1 +$4 +288%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Kyle Daukaus win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $3 +$2 +63%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $3 +$1 +32%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +33%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 11 $2 +$2 +116%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) May 31 $2 +$4 +172%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 31 $2 +$2 +90%
UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims) May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs NRG (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qual May 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Quali May 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) May 27 $6 −$4 -65%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 May 27 $3 +$1 +59%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $1 −$1 -74%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 27 $2 −$2 -67%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5 May 26 $1 +$2 +165%
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) May 26 $2 +$6 +307%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5 May 26 $1 −$1 -72%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 219.5 May 26 $1 $0 +17%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 25 $4 +$4 +101%
1H Spread: Spurs (-1.5) May 25 $2 −$2 -74%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) May 24 $4 +$6 +152%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Knicks (-11.5) May 22 $11 +$9 +84%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) May 22 $1 −$1 -53%
Spread: Knicks (-14.5) May 22 $3 −$1 -19%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $3 +$2 +48%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5 May 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 216.5 May 18 $5 +$3 +71%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 May 18 $3 +$2 +76%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 17 $19 −$17 -93%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski (Middleweight, Preli May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 17 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Modestas Bukauskas win by KO or TKO? May 17 $4 −$3 -98%
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 17 $4 −$1 -38%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 209.5 May 16 $3 +$7 +233%
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5) May 16 $2 −$1 -43%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Tobias Harris: Points O/U 18.5 May 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 25.5 May 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 80¢ $6 59m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $1 1h
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $1 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 22¢ $1 4h
Will Kyle Daukaus win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $5 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $3 5h
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 87¢ $4 4d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 85¢ $3 4d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) SELL Spurs 86¢ $4 4d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 63¢ $2 4d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 65¢ $3 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 BUY Under 36¢ $2 4d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 39¢ $2 4d
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) BUY Bruno Silva 52¢ $1 8d
Will Senegal win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 14d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2 15d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Spurs 36¢ $2 15d
UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims) BUY Aoriqileng 22¢ $1 15d
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs NRG (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qual BUY FURIA Esports 32¢ $1 17d
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Quali BUY LOUD 30¢ $1 17d
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) BUY Thunder 31¢ $3 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4 19d
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) SELL Thunder 24¢ $2 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Spurs $0 19d
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) BUY Thunder 31¢ $2 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 22¢ $1 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 22¢ $0 19d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) SELL Spurs 16¢ $1 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 231 history records