Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:37:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e6b…4ca4 crypto 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$58 (-3%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate59%29W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$7
politics 32% −$33
crypto 16% $0
other 1% −$7
sports 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 18 +0.0% -9.5% 72% 0% -9.8%
all 49 -6.8% -15.7% 59% 0% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 0% -12.1%
10% -23.7% 0% -20.5%
15% -31.1% 0% -28.2%
20% -37.9% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 83% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses29 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage153d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $432 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $138 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $48 $0 +1%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $168 +$2 +1%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 03 $160 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $278 −$6 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 29 $154 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 9? May 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 8? Apr 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on April 7? Apr 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 3? Apr 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 2? Apr 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 31? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 1? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 30? Mar 31 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 27? Mar 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 26? Mar 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 25? Mar 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on March 24? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 21? Mar 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 20? Mar 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 18? Mar 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 17? Mar 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 14? Mar 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 13? Mar 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 11? Mar 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 10? Mar 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on March 8? Mar 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 7? Mar 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on March 6? Mar 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 06 $40 −$8 -20%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 05 $8 −$4 -50%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 04 $37 −$4 -10%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 03 $38 −$4 -10%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 02 $33 −$4 -11%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 01 $28 −$4 -12%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 31 $18 −$4 -20%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 30 $25 −$4 -14%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 29 $30 +$2 +8%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 28 $34 −$4 -11%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 27 $8 −$4 -50%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 26 $30 −$4 -12%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 25 $7 −$4 -50%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 24 $14 −$2 -11%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 24 $22 −$2 -10%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 23 $7 −$4 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $141 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $141 22h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $64 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $62 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $144 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $137 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $138 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $87 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $147 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 20d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? SELL No 85¢ $170 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $48 20d
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? BUY No 84¢ $168 20d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 80¢ $160 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $272 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $138 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $140 20d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 80¢ $160 21d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $154 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $154 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $15 75d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $14 77d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $10 77d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 82d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 82d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $13 83d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $13 84d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 128 history records