Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:41:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3E 0x3e69…7a30 sports 1577 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d only
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3,387 (-4%) realized −$3,389 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate88%1386W / 190L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day68.9pace
Fees−$173est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$97
7 days−$243
14 days−$564
30 days−$737
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$1,208
other 5% −$402
crypto 1% −$33
world 0% +$1
culture 0% +$2
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 234 -1.6% -10.9% 91% 4% -11.3%
≤30d 1036 -1.4% -10.8% 90% 7% -10.9%
≤90d 1576 -1.9% -11.2% 88% 6% -11.4%
all 1576 -1.9% -11.2% 88% 6% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 6% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 1% -19.9%
15% -27.5% 0% -27.6%
20% -34.6% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$30 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$3,389
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses1386 / 190
Est. fees paid−$173
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1576 / 1577
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$50
Trades / day68.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1576 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Hyu Kawanishi Jake Delaney 97¢ 100¢ $69 $71 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Zhengzhou: Meng-Yi Chen vs Chenting Zhu Jun 16 $60 +$2 +3%
ITF Sapporo: Gaeul Jang vs Sera Nishimoto Jun 16 $67 +$1 +2%
ITF Sapporo: Chisato Kanemaki vs Aishi Das Jun 16 $68 +$1 +2%
ITF Tokyo: Sena Okabe vs Hikaru Shiraishi Jun 16 $61 +$2 +3%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America Jun 16 $120 +$3 +2%
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Jun 16 $75 +$3 +4%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $74 +$5 +6%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Samuel Linde Jun 15 $122 +$4 +3%
ITF Tauste: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Zoziya Kardava Jun 15 $60 +$2 +3%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Yuliana Lizarazo Jun 15 $109 +$4 +4%
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 15 $109 +$3 +3%
Brescia: Raluca Serban vs Mayar Sherif Jun 15 $104 +$4 +4%
Figueira Da Foz: Carolyn Ansari vs Barbora Palicova Jun 15 $81 +$2 +3%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Moez Echargui Jun 15 $83 +$3 +4%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $133 −$94 -71%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Laurent Lokoli Jun 15 $67 +$3 +4%
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Ana Sofia Sanchez Jun 15 $127 +$5 +4%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 15 $60 +$2 +4%
Poznan: Duje Ajdukovic vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 15 $63 +$3 +5%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $101 +$4 +4%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Franco Roncadelli Jun 15 $71 +$3 +4%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $143 +$3 +2%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $82 +$4 +5%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 15 $80 +$2 +2%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $118 +$5 +4%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $60 +$2 +4%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $130 +$6 +5%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 15 $60 +$2 +4%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $60 +$2 +4%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $60 +$2 +4%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 15 $65 +$1 +2%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5) - Call of Du Jun 15 $110 +$2 +2%
ITF Los Angeles: Alina Shcherbinina vs Kaitlyn Carnicella Jun 14 $61 −$45 -74%
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $60 +$2 +3%
Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $60 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $60 +$2 +3%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $70 +$2 +3%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $47 +$2 +4%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $60 +$2 +3%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hannah Klugman Jun 14 $60 +$2 +4%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $60 +$2 +4%
ITF Curtea de Arges: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Anas Mazdrashki Jun 14 $70 +$5 +7%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $60 +$2 +4%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 14 $60 +$2 +3%
Olimpia Milano vs. Reyer Venezia Jun 13 $47 +$1 +1%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $47 +$5 +10%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $47 +$3 +6%
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pr Jun 13 $47 +$2 +4%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $70 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Hyu Kawanishi BUY Jake Delaney 97¢ $69 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Meng-Yi Chen vs Chenting Zhu BUY Chenting Zhu 97¢ $60 2h
ITF Sapporo: Gaeul Jang vs Sera Nishimoto BUY Gaeul Jang 98¢ $67 2h
ITF Sapporo: Chisato Kanemaki vs Aishi Das BUY Aishi Das 98¢ $68 3h
ITF Tokyo: Sena Okabe vs Hikaru Shiraishi BUY Hikaru Shiraishi 97¢ $61 4h
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America BUY Team Nemesis 98¢ $120 6h
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Belle Thompson 96¢ $75 6h
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 94¢ $74 8h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Samuel Linde BUY Juan Estevez 97¢ $122 10h
ITF Tauste: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Zoziya Kardava BUY Tiphanie Lemaitre 97¢ $60 11h
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Yuliana Lizarazo BUY Sarah Rakotomanga 96¢ $109 12h
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin BUY Svyatoslav Gulin 97¢ $109 12h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio SELL Nuria Brancaccio 29¢ $39 13h
Figueira Da Foz: Carolyn Ansari vs Barbora Palicova BUY Barbora Palicova 97¢ $81 13h
Brescia: Raluca Serban vs Mayar Sherif BUY Mayar Sherif 96¢ $104 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 86¢ $70 14h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Laurent Lokoli SELL Kilian Feldbausch 100¢ $70 14h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Nuria Brancaccio 98¢ $133 14h
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Moez Echargui BUY Jaime Faria 96¢ $83 14h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Laurent Lokoli BUY Kilian Feldbausch 96¢ $67 15h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio BUY Sebastian Ofner 96¢ $60 15h
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Ana Sofia Sanchez BUY Ayla Aksu 96¢ $127 15h
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Franco Roncadelli SELL Facundo Acosta 100¢ $74 15h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series SELL Walczaki 100¢ $146 15h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 96¢ $101 16h
Poznan: Duje Ajdukovic vs Dalibor Svrcina BUY Dalibor Svrcina 95¢ $63 16h
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Franco Roncadelli BUY Facundo Acosta 96¢ $71 16h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY Walczaki 98¢ $143 18h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel SELL Diane Parry 100¢ $62 20h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin SELL Anhelina Kalinina 100¢ $62 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.79 · official $70.79 (match) · 3500 history records