Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:12:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e66…9d11 other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$292 (-15%) realized −$499 · open +$207
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%12W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$1,000now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$243
7 days−$376
14 days−$490
30 days−$495
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$188
sports 12% −$117
crypto 2% +$16
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-48.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -47.5% -52.5% 36% 36% -56.4%
≤30d 32 -42.9% -48.4% 38% 38% -50.2%
≤90d 32 -42.9% -48.4% 38% 38% -50.2%
all 32 -42.9% -48.4% 38% 38% -50.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.4% 38% -50.2%
10% -53.3% 28% -54.9%
15% -57.8% 28% -59.3%
20% -62.0% 16% -63.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$35 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$1,000
Realized−$499
Unrealized+$207
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses12 / 20
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)32 / 38
History coverage26d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 53¢ 100¢ $200 $377 +$177 (+89%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 57¢ 63¢ $200 $219 +$19 (+9%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 53¢ $200 $203 +$3 (+2%)
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $89 $89 +$1 (+1%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 63¢ 57¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$4 +12%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$16 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$4 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$19 +62%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$41 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$11 +21%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $90 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $203 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 46¢ $203 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $14 14h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $14 14h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 36h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 36h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 36h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 2d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $30 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 6d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 6d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 7d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,000.11 · official $1,000.15 (match) · 51 history records