Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:46:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e65…10be crypto 1100 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (121 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$942 (+3%) realized +$942 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate67%1056W / 514L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day121.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$306
other 2% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (121 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 763 -61.2% -64.9% 37% 2% -37.9%
≤30d 1570 -29.5% -36.2% 67% 3% -16.7%
≤90d 1570 -29.5% -36.2% 67% 3% -16.7%
all 1570 -29.5% -36.2% 67% 3% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover121.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.2% 3% -16.7%
10% ← realistic here -42.3% 1% -24.7%
15% -47.9% 1% -32.0%
20% -53.0% 1% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -59% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$942
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses1056 / 514
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1570 / 1100
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$30
Trades / day121.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1570 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$26 -271%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$10 -208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$10 -207%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$51 -212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$20 -203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$16 -492%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $28 −$31 -110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$10 -206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$8 -137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $16 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $15 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $15 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $16 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $13 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records