Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:36:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e65…88c4 other 367 markets active 2h ago coverage 609d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$474 (-14%) realized −$473 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate58%208W / 150L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days−$995
14 days−$993
30 days−$977
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$310
sports 36% −$137
politics 5% +$1
world 1% +$11
economics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 132 -80.7% -82.6% 11% 11% -67.7%
≤30d 134 -78.7% -80.8% 12% 12% -65.5%
≤90d 138 -76.5% -78.8% 13% 13% -65.3%
all 358 -8.1% -16.9% 58% 55% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 55% -21.5%
10% -24.8% 47% -29.0%
15% -32.1% 32% -35.9%
20% -38.8% 22% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -62% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

609d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$473
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses208 / 150
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions8
Markets (closed)358 / 367
History coverage609d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 358 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-20%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+17%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+32%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-38%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $101 +$31 +31%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $15 +$5 +33%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $14 +$6 +46%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $6 +$4 +75%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 +$10 +96%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $16 +$4 +26%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $108 +$62 +57%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $9 +$11 +119%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$10 +100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $7 +$6 +88%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +90%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Nets vs. Celtics Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bills vs. Dolphins Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Warriors Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Panthers vs. Falcons Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Magic vs. Knicks Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bulls vs. Jazz Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Suns Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bears vs. Vikings Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Eagles vs. Cowboys Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Warriors vs. Magic Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Chargers vs. Jaguars Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Nets vs. Wizards Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Warriors vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bucks vs. Hornets Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Hornets vs. Pacers Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-24? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-12-10? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Jaguars vs. Texans Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Heat Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-10? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Wizards vs. Mavericks Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-12-10? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-11-05? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2025-11-05? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will PSV win on 2025-12-09? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 76¢ $101 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $15 21h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $0 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $2 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $3 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $14 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $4 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $16 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $34 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $46 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $9 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $62 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 25¢ $3 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 4d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 89¢ $13 4d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 30¢ $2 4d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $6 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 5d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 80¢ $5 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $71 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $133 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $33 5d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $4 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.14 · official $23.14 (match) · 777 history records