Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:16:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3E
0x3e63…021d
crypto · 37 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$17 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$18 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$78
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses15 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)22 / 37
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day70.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 15 History 22 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$18
14 days+$18
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $36 +$32 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$4 -64%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 66% +$18
other 33% $0
world 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 54m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -5.1% -14.1% 68% 55% +0.8%
≤30d 22 -5.1% -14.1% 68% 55% +0.8%
≤90d 22 -5.1% -14.1% 68% 55% +0.8%
all 22 -5.1% -14.1% 68% 55% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover70.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 55% +0.8%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 23% -8.8%
15% -29.9% 18% -17.6%
20% -36.7% 18% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.54 · official $77.54 (match) · 90 history records