Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:17:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3E 0x3e5d…a2e6 crypto 174 markets active 1h ago coverage 216d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$582 (+2%) realized +$612 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate67%113W / 55L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$446now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$111
7 days−$146
14 days−$139
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% +$488
world 11% +$260
politics 5% −$57
sports 2% −$11
other 1% +$37
weather 0% −$82
tech 0% +$2
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -19.1% -26.8% 50% 33% -35.7%
≤30d 10 -11.5% -20.0% 60% 40% -23.2%
≤90d 17 -5.8% -14.8% 65% 35% -9.0%
all 168 +4.5% -5.5% 67% 54% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 54% -7.8%
10% -14.5% 36% -16.6%
15% -22.8% 17% -24.7%
20% -30.4% 8% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +7% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$76 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

216d coverage
Net worth$446
Realized+$612
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses113 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)168 / 174
History coverage216d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $188 $193 +$5 (+3%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 80¢ 99¢ $100 $124 +$24 (+24%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 83¢ 88¢ $93 $99 +$6 (+6%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 61¢ 56¢ $29 $26 −$3 (-9%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 85¢ 2¢ $64 $2 −$62 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $100 −$9 -9%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 16 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $116 −$116 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $50 +$13 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $100 −$46 -46%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $90 +$10 +11%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $50 +$2 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $50 +$6 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $100 +$43 +43%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $25 −$14 -58%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $200 +$48 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $261 +$90 +34%
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? Apr 21 $200 −$14 -7%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 14 $227 +$17 +8%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 13 $53 −$30 -56%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 09 $140 +$10 +7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 01 $13 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 7? Mar 09 $16 −$2 -14%
Will the US strike 3 countries in February 2026? Mar 07 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on March 6? Mar 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Mar 05 $615 −$12 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 6? Mar 05 $80 −$80 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 04 $26 +$13 +48%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Mar 02 $532 +$73 +14%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $408 +$265 +65%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 15 $50 −$27 -55%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 15 $100 −$46 -46%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 14 $100 −$9 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Dec 16 $50 −$30 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Dec 16 $50 +$13 +27%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 06 $44 +$27 +61%
Bears vs. Eagles Nov 29 $372 +$15 +4%
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday? Nov 28 $338 +$33 +10%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Nov 25 $33 +$11 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Nov 24 $50 −$27 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Nov 24 $100 −$74 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Nov 24 $100 −$48 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 23, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Nov 24 $50 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Nov 24 $300 −$32 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 23, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Nov 24 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Nov 24 $50 +$18 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Nov 23 $50 −$24 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Nov 23 $150 +$31 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Nov 23 $150 +$46 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Nov 23 $50 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Nov 23 $50 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Nov 23 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Nov 23 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Nov 23 $50 +$17 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Nov 23 $100 +$16 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $260 1h
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? SELL Yes 92¢ $62 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $262 1h
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $7 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $91 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $52 1h
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $19 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 3¢ $3 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 66¢ $16 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 45¢ $54 2d
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $46 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 88¢ $100 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $100 7d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 84¢ $52 7d
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? BUY Yes 90¢ $125 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $100 9d
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? BUY Yes 92¢ $25 9d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 9d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 79¢ $50 9d
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $50 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 90¢ $50 14d
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $102 14d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 80¢ $101 14d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 90¢ $50 15d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $100 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $100 53d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $150 53d
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $157 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $446.04 · official $446.04 (match) · 831 history records