Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:56:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
3E 0x3e5c…70b4 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 223d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$41 (+6%) realized +$36 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$285now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$39
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-35.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.0% -9.5% 67% 67% -9.2%
≤30d 3 -0.0% -9.5% 67% 67% -9.2%
≤90d 3 -0.0% -9.5% 67% 67% -9.2%
all 9 -28.9% -35.7% 44% 44% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.7% 44% -1.9%
10% -41.8% 44% -11.2%
15% -47.4% 33% -19.8%
20% -52.6% 11% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$13 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$285
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Open positions9
Markets (closed)9 / 18
History coverage223d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-07-01? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 52¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+52%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 23¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+18%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 71¢ 74¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 20¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-36%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $15 +$8 +50%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 +$8 +50%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -99%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 26 $284 +$71 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 18 $12 +$13 +115%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 1h
Will England win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 3d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 71¢ $20 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 5d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 5d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 5d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $355 184d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY Yes 72¢ $193 190d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 190d
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? BUY Yes 72¢ $86 190d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 BUY Yes 20¢ $15 221d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 BUY Yes 23¢ $15 221d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 BUY Yes 18¢ $15 221d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 SELL Yes 100¢ $25 221d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 BUY Yes 23¢ $6 223d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 BUY Yes 46¢ $12 223d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $285.34 · official $285.34 (match) · 28 history records