Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:03:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e59…b497 sports 183 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$38 (-1%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%84W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days−$246
14 days−$246
30 days−$246
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$107
other 31% −$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -28.8% -35.6% 30% 27% -59.5%
≤30d 30 -28.8% -35.6% 30% 27% -59.5%
≤90d 30 -28.8% -35.6% 30% 27% -59.5%
all 183 +2.9% -6.9% 46% 45% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 45% -9.9%
10% -15.8% 44% -18.5%
15% -23.9% 41% -26.4%
20% -31.4% 40% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$17 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses84 / 99
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)183 / 183
History coverage160d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 183 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $64 +$10 +16%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $29 +$2 +7%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 +$5 +91%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 +$7 +71%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$1 -27%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$6 +442%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 +$8 +129%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +121%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-02-01? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Antalyaspor win on 2026-01-30? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Rockets vs. Pacers: O/U 219.5 Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Islanders vs. Capitals Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Clippers vs. Nuggets Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Nets vs. Jazz: O/U 227.5 Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Lock In Group Stage Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Pelicans vs. 76ers Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $66 −$66 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -10%
Spread: Celtics (-13.5) Feb 02 $15 +$16 +104%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $6 −$1 -14%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $20 $0 -2%
Bulls vs. Heat Feb 01 $4 +$8 +194%
Mavericks vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5 Feb 01 $19 +$17 +92%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-31? Jan 31 $27 +$18 +65%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-01-30? Jan 30 $40 −$21 -52%
Kings vs. 76ers Jan 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Nemiga (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #13 Playoffs Jan 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner Jan 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-29? Jan 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Jan 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs NIP (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Jan 30 $5 +$9 +185%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Jan 30 $10 +$16 +163%
Kings vs. 76ers: O/U 228.5 Jan 30 $20 +$22 +108%
Pistons vs. Suns Jan 30 $32 +$46 +144%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-01-29? Jan 29 $37 −$30 -82%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Jan 29 $27 +$18 +68%
Al Hazem SC vs. Al Shabab Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 Jan 29 $13 +$14 +102%
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Jan 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 99¢ $41 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 63¢ $3 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 81¢ $30 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 56¢ $33 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 76¢ $31 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 70¢ $29 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $10 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $17 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 20¢ $2 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 26¢ $3 4h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 7h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 28h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 50¢ $14 28h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 21¢ $6 28h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 75¢ $2 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $1 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $15 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $15 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $2 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $11 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 387 history records