Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:57:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e57…84a5 other 199 markets active 13h ago coverage 311d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 310d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,550 (+0%) realized +$4,400 · open +$150
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate79%158W / 43L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,555per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$9,478now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 311d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 91% −$728,323
crypto 4% +$1,096
other 2% +$245
finance 1% +$319
world 1% +$541
politics 1% −$107
sports 0% +$30
tech 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -89.3% -90.3% 9% 0% -81.4%
≤30d 39 -51.7% -56.3% 38% 3% -51.3%
≤90d 52 -42.5% -48.0% 48% 2% -38.6%
all 201 -0.4% -9.9% 79% 5% -55.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 5% -55.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 2% -60.1%
15% -26.4% 1% -64.0%
20% -33.6% 1% -67.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -69% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$1,004) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$17,980 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

311d coverage
Net worth$9,478
Realized+$4,400
Unrealized+$150
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses158 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions19
Markets (closed)201 / 199
History coverage311d ⚠
Avg bet$7,555
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 94¢ 96¢ $2,957 $3,015 +$58 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 90¢ 90¢ $2,520 $2,534 +$14 (+1%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December? No 88¢ 87¢ $1,036 $1,030 −$6 (-1%)
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? No 84¢ 87¢ $840 $870 +$30 (+4%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 90¢ 94¢ $450 $468 +$18 (+4%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $442 $442 +$0 (+0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 100¢ $279 $299 +$20 (+7%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December? No 93¢ 92¢ $160 $158 −$2 (-1%)
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $113 $119 +$6 (+6%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $105 $110 +$5 (+5%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will MrBeast hit 133.5 billion views by July 31? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $82 $84 +$2 (+2%)
Will MrBeast hit 134.5 billion views by July 31? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $72 $74 +$2 (+2%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.40 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-3%)
Will MrBeast hit 510 million subscribers by July 31? Yes 95¢ 98¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+3%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 90¢ 100¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+10%)
Will Waymo operate in 5 cities or less on June 30 2026? No 93¢ 97¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 88¢ 94¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Megaquake by August 31? Jun 29 $910 −$910 -100%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 29 $0 −$1,890 -1167451%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Jun 29 $0 $0 -61%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k again in 2024? Jun 29 $1,004 −$1,004 -100%
Will Chris Christie win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 29 $2,017 −$2,017 -100%
US debt ceiling hike by June 1? Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Kanye West win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 29 $2,017 −$2,017 -100%
ETH above $1,700 on Sep 8? Jun 29 $21 −$67 -315%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 29 $101 −$2,054 -2038%
Will Elizabeth Warren win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 29 $2,017 −$2,017 -100%
Will AOC win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 29 $2,017 −$2,017 -100%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 29 $2,017 −$2,017 -100%
Will any other Democratic Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Elec Jun 29 $0 −$1,789 -1104726%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 29 $0 −$1,594 -984862%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 29 $0 −$1,768 -1091779%
Will any other Republican Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Elec Jun 29 $0 −$1,830 -30498598%
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 29 $0 −$1,954 -1206641%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 29 $2,017 −$2,017 -100%
BTC above $28,000 at end of August? Jun 29 $26 −$34 -133%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 29 $0 −$1,208 -746275%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 29 $0 −$1,954 -1206764%
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? Jun 26 $2,394 +$103 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 26 $1,099 +$43 +4%
Will MrBeast hit 497 million subscribers by June 30? Jun 15 $54 +$5 +9%
Will MrBeast hit 500 million subscribers by June 30? Jun 15 $1,020 +$28 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 14 $81 −$11 -13%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $292 +$3 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 10 $336 −$8 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 09 $2,542 +$134 +5%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 03 $196 +$4 +2%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31? Jun 03 $110 +$5 +5%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 03 $194 +$6 +3%
Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31? Jun 03 $247 +$33 +13%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Jun 01 $236 −$5 -2%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? Jun 01 $618 +$13 +2%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? Jun 01 $161 +$7 +4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $416 +$14 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 01 $5,396 +$69 +1%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31? Jun 01 $196 +$4 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 25 $214 +$4 +2%
Will MrBeast hit 122.5 billion views by May 31? May 18 $123 +$4 +3%
Trump out as President by June 30? May 11 $1,900 +$62 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 02 $235 −$235 -100%
Crude Oil all time high by April 30? May 02 $2,402 +$19 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Apr 30 $1,490 −$329 -22%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 29 $1 −$1 -95%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 23 $3,078 +$21 +1%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? Apr 13 $4,157 +$111 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Apr 12 $155 +$14 +9%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 02 $32 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? BUY No 90¢ $2,530 13h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December? BUY No 86¢ $215 17h
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $41 17h
Will MrBeast hit 134.5 billion views by July 31? BUY Yes 96¢ $30 19h
Will MrBeast hit 134.5 billion views by July 31? BUY Yes 95¢ $14 19h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December? BUY No 86¢ $31 22h
Will MrBeast hit 134.5 billion views by July 31? BUY Yes 96¢ $28 22h
Will MrBeast hit 133.5 billion views by July 31? BUY Yes 97¢ $82 22h
Will MrBeast hit 510 million subscribers by July 31? BUY Yes 95¢ $31 22h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in June? BUY No 99¢ $99 2d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in June? BUY No 100¢ $243 2d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in June? BUY No 99¢ $199 2d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.40 in June? BUY No 99¢ $68 2d
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $35 3d
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $57 3d
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $83 3d
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $58 3d
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1,973 3d
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $19 3d
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $12 3d
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $89 3d
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $21 3d
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $143 3d
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $5 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1,142 3d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December? BUY No 88¢ $794 14d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $4,500 (LOW) in December? BUY No 93¢ $160 14d
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $423 14d
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $423 14d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $70 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,477.98 · official $9,477.92 (match) · 3500 history records