Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T11:05:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3E
0x3e56…35d5
world · 444 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
+$335 +17%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$305 · open +$19
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$601
Realized+$305
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses200 / 144
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions107
Markets (closed)344 / 444
History coverage67d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day47.0
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 107 History 344 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$17
14 days+$102
30 days+$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 70¢ 99¢ $29 $41 +$12 (+42%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 62¢ 92¢ $24 $36 +$12 (+49%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 62¢ 97¢ $20 $31 +$11 (+58%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 59¢ 81¢ $23 $31 +$9 (+38%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 63¢ 50¢ $36 $28 −$8 (-22%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 68¢ 99¢ $17 $25 +$8 (+46%)
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? No 62¢ 82¢ $19 $25 +$6 (+33%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 72¢ 84¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+15%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 78¢ 64¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-18%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 67¢ 88¢ $10 $14 +$3 (+32%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 83¢ 85¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 62¢ 60¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-5%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 51¢ 84¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+65%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 10¢ 60¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+499%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 75¢ 88¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+17%)
Iran nuclear test before 2027? No 83¢ 92¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+11%)
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? Yes 50¢ 62¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+23%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in D-Wave Quantum Inc.? No 12¢ 32¢ $3 $8 +$5 (+176%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes 31¢ 12¢ $19 $8 −$11 (-60%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 61¢ 52¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-16%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? No 33¢ 27¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-19%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? No 59¢ 44¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-25%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? No 49¢ 40¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $7 −$4 -62%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $0 $0 -99%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? Jun 13 $6 +$4 +57%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -32%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -20%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +28%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +52%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +63%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -53%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +19%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 +7%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 +27%
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $4 $0 +6%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -82%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $2 +$11 +614%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $6 −$2 -32%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $2 $0 +6%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $2 +$2 +93%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $2 +$1 +66%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +47%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $6 $0 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $2 +$1 +60%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $5 +$2 +32%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $9 −$3 -31%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +39%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $7 +$1 +21%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $7 +$2 +22%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $8 +$18 +225%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $16 −$15 -92%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $2 +$1 +40%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 06 $1 $0 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $3 +$1 +26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $5 +$2 +46%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $3 +$2 +77%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 03 $4 +$2 +40%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 03 $2 +$1 +50%
Will gas hit (High) $4.60 by May 31? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by May 31? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $19 +$38 +202%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? Jun 02 $3 −$2 -72%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $17 +$3 +14%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $23 −$6 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 65% +$346
other 17% +$54
politics 10% −$71
finance 5% +$19
sports 2% −$24
tech 1% +$7
economics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 64¢ $1 37m
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 38m
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 39m
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 39m
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 45¢ $1 41m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $1 50m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY No 72¢ $1 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $1 1h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? BUY No 94¢ $1 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $1 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY No 42¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $1 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 1h
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY No 47¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY No 59¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 70¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 91¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 79¢ $1 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $1 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $1 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $1 6h
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? SELL No 1¢ $3 7h
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? BUY No 0¢ $0 7h
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +21.4% +9.8% 67% 50% +2.7%
≤30d 165 -2.3% -11.6% 59% 50% -1.2%
≤90d 344 +6.7% -3.5% 58% 50% +8.3%
all 344 +6.7% -3.5% 58% 50% +8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover47.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.5% 50% +8.3%
10% ← realistic here -12.7% 36% -2.1%
15% -21.2% 27% -11.5%
20% -28.9% 19% -20.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $601.22 · official $601.75 (match) · 3500 history records