Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:23:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3E 0x3e53…de7d sports 86 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%84W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$2
other 25% +$1
tech 9% $0
crypto 6% $0
finance 4% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 84 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 84 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 84 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses84 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage15d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Pegula (+1.5) Jun 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 19? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 100¢ $50 18m
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 100¢ $50 19h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 19h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 23h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 25h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 38h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 45h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 100¢ $50 45h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 47h
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Pegula (+1.5) BUY Pegula 100¢ $45 2d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $50 2d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 100¢ $50 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $50 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 100¢ $50 3d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Walczaki 100¢ $50 3d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 3d
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $50 3d
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY YFP Gaming 100¢ $50 3d
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 100¢ $50 4d
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $50 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $50 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 100¢ $50 5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 100¢ $50 5d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.95 · official $99.95 (match) · 173 history records