Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:09:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e4c…5695 crypto 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (112 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$308 (-8%) realized −$318 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%10W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day112.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$312now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$4
sports 8% −$308
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (112 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 50% -18.4%
≤30d 20 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 50% -18.4%
≤90d 20 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 50% -18.4%
all 20 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 50% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover112.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 50% -18.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 50% -26.2%
15% -25.5% 50% -33.3%
20% -32.8% 50% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$138 vs −$171 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$312
Realized−$318
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses10 / 10
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)20 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day112.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 51¢ 54¢ $152 $160 +$9 (+6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Up 50¢ 50¢ $150 $152 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 24 $157 +$136 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $182 +$218 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 24 $180 −$174 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 24 $212 +$163 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $178 −$173 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 24 $184 −$177 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $161 −$156 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $153 +$119 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $153 −$148 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 24 $148 +$105 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $153 +$147 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 24 $151 +$149 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $84 +$35 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $165 +$188 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $153 −$151 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $149 −$9 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $161 +$123 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 24 $260 −$255 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $154 −$153 -99%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $313 −$308 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $13 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $30 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $23 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $30 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $14 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $68 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $17 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $153 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $157 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $39 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $143 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $16 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $164 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $75 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $47 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $165 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $7 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $13 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $158 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $30 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $153 34m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $312.00 · official $243.00 · 121 history records