Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:33:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e4a…dced other 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$36 (-3%) realized +$16 · open −$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate36%21W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$3
world 5% −$24
economics 4% +$4
tech 3% −$14
politics 3% −$4
sports 2% +$21
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +9.4% -1.0% 50% 50% -13.3%
≤30d 9 +84.4% +66.8% 56% 56% +57.7%
≤90d 41 +16.9% +5.8% 37% 32% +0.2%
all 58 +1.1% -8.5% 36% 31% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 31% -5.4%
10% -17.3% 24% -14.5%
15% -25.3% 21% -22.7%
20% -32.6% 10% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$5 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$207
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses21 / 37
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)58 / 73
History coverage153d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes 28¢ 20¢ $121 $84 −$37 (-30%)
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.0m & 4.2m square kilometers? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $43 $43 −$1 (-1%)
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes 60¢ 69¢ $18 $21 +$3 (+17%)
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers? Yes 50¢ 49¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $17 $13 −$5 (-26%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+22%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 35¢ 55¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+58%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Up 88¢ 32¢ $17 $6 −$11 (-64%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.2m & 4.4m square kilometers? Yes 18¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $4 +$1 +38%
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.4m & 4 Jun 26 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 01 $4 +$17 +474%
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland May 30 $5 +$25 +483%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Sweden May 28 $10 +$5 +48%
World Championships: Finland vs. Czechia May 28 $4 +$2 +36%
Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland May 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Israel win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 17 $2 +$5 +253%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 +$10 +975%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $7 −$6 -88%
Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $43 −$28 -64%
Will Latvia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 15 $3 +$1 +45%
Will Armenia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 15 $4 +$1 +37%
Will Norway advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $1 $0 -39%
Will Malta advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Finland win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 13 $15 −$8 -52%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $3 $0 -3%
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 mi May 12 $3 −$1 -40%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $2 −$2 -79%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $1 −$1 -88%
Will Greece win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 12 $2 −$1 -54%
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? May 12 $9 +$1 +14%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 08 $3 −$1 -25%
Will Israel advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 07 $3 $0 +8%
Will France be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.6m & 4 Apr 27 $16 −$6 -35%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $6 −$4 -64%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 16 $279 +$113 +40%
Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 09 $2 −$2 -63%
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Apr 09 $5 $0 -8%
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 08 $50 −$37 -75%
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? Apr 05 $7 +$1 +16%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 03 $7 −$4 -56%
Will the maximum Arctic sea ice extent this winter be between 14.2m & Apr 03 $20 +$3 +15%
Will Wei Yi win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 01 $8 +$1 +8%
Will Praggnanandhaa R win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Mar 31 $2 −$1 -47%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Mar 19 $31 −$25 -81%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 19 $2 −$2 -81%
Will the maximum Arctic sea ice extent this winter be between 14.4m & Mar 19 $3 −$3 -87%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Mar 17 $2 $0 -13%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 17 $3 $0 +11%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 17 $8 +$3 +32%
Will Finland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m squ SELL Yes 48¢ $39 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 11h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 12h
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 16h
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.4m & 4 SELL No 93¢ $5 17h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 46¢ $2 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 44¢ $6 2d
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? SELL Yes 25¢ $13 3d
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 4d
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 4d
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? BUY Yes 23¢ $14 6d
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? BUY Yes 24¢ $13 7d
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 7d
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? SELL Yes 25¢ $6 7d
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 7d
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 7d
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 7d
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 7d
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? SELL Yes 23¢ $38 9d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 14¢ $1 10d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 88¢ $17 10d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 28¢ $2 10d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 27¢ $2 10d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on BUY Yes 16¢ $2 10d
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra BUY Yes 8¢ $1 10d
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 12d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 40¢ $3 12d
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.88 · official $206.89 (match) · 308 history records