Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:49:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e48…1192 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+10%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$2
tech 36% +$1
sports 8% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-42.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +13.3% +2.5% 100% 100% +2.5%
≤30d 4 -36.2% -42.3% 50% 25% -10.3%
≤90d 4 -36.2% -42.3% 50% 25% -10.3%
all 4 -36.2% -42.3% 50% 25% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.3% 25% -10.3%
10% -47.8% 0% -18.9%
15% -52.8% 0% -26.7%
20% -57.5% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage14d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 20 $26 +$4 +13%
Will Valve remove Mirage from the Map Pool? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -66%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +8%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 07 $4 −$4 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $30 1h
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 5d
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5d
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 5d
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 5d
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 6d
Will Valve remove Mirage from the Map Pool? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 32¢ $20 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 28¢ $3 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 28¢ $3 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 28¢ $3 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 28¢ $3 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 28¢ $1 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 28¢ $3 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 28¢ $3 8d
Will Valve remove Mirage from the Map Pool? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $2 13d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $1 13d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records