Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:15:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e48…e8e6 crypto 156 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$84 (-1%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate46%71W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81
7 days−$235
14 days−$238
30 days−$238
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$163
other 27% −$64
politics 4% +$43
tech 1% +$3
finance 0% +$63
world 0% −$15
sports 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -9.1% -17.8% 21% 17% -22.1%
≤30d 82 -8.4% -17.2% 27% 17% -20.0%
≤90d 84 -7.8% -16.5% 29% 18% -17.1%
all 156 -3.7% -12.9% 46% 31% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 31% -11.9%
10% -21.2% 22% -20.3%
15% -28.9% 19% -28.0%
20% -35.8% 15% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$14 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses71 / 85
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)156 / 156
History coverage106d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 156 Trades
no open positions (54 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$8 +39%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $5 +$26 +510%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $10 +$31 +307%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $103 −$56 -54%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $181 +$33 +18%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $5 +$32 +627%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $5 −$2 -47%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $5 −$3 -51%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $160 +$5 +3%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $21 −$11 -56%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 20 $10 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $15 +$19 +124%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -20%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $20 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $5 +$33 +650%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $120 +$11 +9%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 +$33 +325%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$6 -62%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 98¢ $28 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 2h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 3h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 3h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 33h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 33h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 33h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 34h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 35h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? SELL Yes 12¢ $43 35h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 35h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 36h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 45h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 91¢ $120 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? SELL Yes 68¢ $57 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 378 history records