Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:21:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e47…ace8 crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$161 (-37%) realized −$160 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate45%17W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$101
14 days−$101
30 days−$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 33% −$14
other 28% −$98
tech 26% −$8
culture 12% −$51
sports 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -12.7% -21.0% 40% 40% -81.4%
≤30d 15 -12.7% -21.0% 40% 40% -81.4%
≤90d 15 -12.7% -21.0% 40% 40% -81.4%
all 38 -16.6% -24.5% 45% 39% -46.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.5% 39% -46.0%
10% -31.8% 29% -51.1%
15% -38.3% 21% -55.9%
20% -44.4% 11% -60.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -80% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$160
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses17 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage192d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 77¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +41%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +69%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +344%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +103%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 02 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $20 +$5 +25%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 02 $50 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Dec 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Dec 15 $9 −$3 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Dec 15 $26 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Dec 15 $8 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Dec 15 $22 −$3 -12%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? Dec 15 $3 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Dec 15 $8 −$4 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Dec 15 $9 +$4 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Dec 15 $14 −$4 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Dec 15 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Dec 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Dec 15 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Dec 15 $9 −$2 -21%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 12 $3 $0 +4%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? Dec 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13? Dec 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 09 $10 +$3 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 79¢ $2 2h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 3h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 26h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 26h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 26h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.12 · official $1.12 (match) · 108 history records