Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:14:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e46…de81 other 198 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,097 (+0%) realized +$1,097 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate16%32W / 164L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$1,224per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$704now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$21
14 days−$199
30 days−$299
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$1,181
politics 37% −$109
sports 11% −$88
economics 3% −$4
world 2% +$65
culture 2% −$5
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 61 -4.0% -13.2% 7% 5% -9.9%
≤90d 140 -11.6% -20.1% 6% 4% -9.3%
all 196 -2.1% -11.4% 16% 10% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 10% -9.1%
10% -19.9% 10% -17.8%
15% -27.6% 9% -25.8%
20% -34.7% 6% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,626) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$8 · ×9.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$704
Realized+$1,097
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses32 / 164
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)196 / 198
History coverage158d
Avg bet$1,224
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 196 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $584 $584 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $120 $120 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,293 −$3 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $2,086 −$3 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $3,693 −$4 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $3,840 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,933 −$4 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $657 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,626 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $766 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $3,948 −$4 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,373 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,296 −$2 -0%
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $781 −$1 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $716 −$1 -0%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $71 −$71 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 05 $82 −$82 -100%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $1,246 −$1 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $964 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $883 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $859 −$1 -0%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $54 +$59 +109%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $4,962 −$5 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $713 −$1 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 02 $446 $0 +0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,500 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $2,374 −$3 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $575 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $1,623 −$3 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $2,296 −$3 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $1,370 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 28 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $3,185 −$4 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $554 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $1,338 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $3,003 −$4 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 25 $63 −$63 -100%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $2,944 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $584 1h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $666 17h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $667 20h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $674 22h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $675 26h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $578 43h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $578 44h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $699 45h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $700 2d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $406 2d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $406 2d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $596 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $597 4d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $656 5d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $657 5d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $558 5d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $559 5d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $583 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $583 6d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $612 7d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $613 7d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $525 7d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $526 7d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $765 7d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $120 7d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $766 8d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $713 8d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $714 8d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $737 8d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $739 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $703.64 · official $703.64 (match) · 667 history records