Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:59:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e42…2294 sports 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 766d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$674 (-22%) realized −$680 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%33W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$163
7 days−$234
14 days−$355
30 days−$378
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$500
other 35% −$110
politics 5% −$103
culture 1% +$4
crypto 0% −$7
finance 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-36.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -27.1% -34.1% 36% 33% -26.2%
≤30d 73 -37.6% -43.6% 27% 26% -29.2%
≤90d 91 -40.6% -46.3% 26% 25% -37.3%
all 114 -29.2% -36.0% 29% 28% -31.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.0% 28% -31.1%
10% -42.1% 22% -37.7%
15% -47.7% 20% -43.7%
20% -52.8% 14% -49.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$16 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

766d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$680
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses33 / 81
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)114 / 116
History coverage766d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+37%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $68 +$7 +10%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $99 −$69 -69%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $5 −$1 -14%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $4 $0 -9%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $5 −$1 -18%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $10 −$6 -56%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $99 −$99 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $50 +$7 +14%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $199 −$93 -47%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $40 +$7 +18%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 25 $10 +$13 +129%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$6 +65%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $10 +$1 +11%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -84%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $2 +$1 +47%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $50 −$1 -3%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 23 $20 +$4 +22%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 +$19 +97%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $50 +$11 +22%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $30 +$20 +65%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $81 +$41 +51%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 $0 -9%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $92 −$1 -2%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 −$14 -69%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Spain to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $50 +$7 +14%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $40 +$14 +34%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $4 −$3 -82%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $5 −$2 -31%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 20 $10 −$6 -53%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 −$1 -13%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 96¢ $74 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $68 4h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 27¢ $31 24h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 24h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 24h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 24h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 24h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 24h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 85¢ $99 25h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY No 88¢ $50 33h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $99 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 43¢ $106 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 79¢ $199 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 74¢ $15 3d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $10 3d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 3d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $20 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $40 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 4d
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $2 4d
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $2 4d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $20 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 68¢ $11 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes $0 5d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.43 · official $20.43 (match) · 281 history records