Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
3E 0x3e42…495d politics 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 26L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,026per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$8
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 90% −$33
other 7% −$2
economics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 26 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 26 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$941) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage63d
Avg bet$1,026
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $907 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $908 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $908 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $910 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,851 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $909 −$2 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $917 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $917 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $914 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $919 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $920 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $921 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $921 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $923 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $925 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $923 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $928 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $927 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,865 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $931 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $780 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $941 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 26 $941 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $1,886 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $944 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $945 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $905 1h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $907 2d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $906 3d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $908 4d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $907 5d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $908 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $908 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $910 9d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $907 13d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $908 14d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $908 15d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $909 16d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $916 17d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $917 18d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $916 20d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $917 20d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $914 22d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $914 23d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $918 24d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $919 25d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $918 26d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $920 27d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $919 28d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $921 28d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $920 30d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $921 31d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $921 32d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $923 33d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $924 34d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $925 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 100 history records