Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:36:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e42…5856 sports 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 208d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
Total PnL −$3,506 (-54%) realized −$3,426 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate28%31W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1,210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$327
7 days+$54
14 days+$38
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$2,196
other 38% −$957
world 4% −$237
crypto 1% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-36.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +45.5% +31.7% 47% 47% -2.7%
≤30d 30 +26.9% +14.8% 43% 43% -12.5%
≤90d 98 -46.2% -51.3% 20% 19% -78.8%
all 110 -30.1% -36.8% 28% 27% -70.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.8% 27% -70.9%
10% -42.8% 27% -73.7%
15% -48.3% 25% -76.2%
20% -53.4% 23% -78.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -77% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$56 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$1,210
Realized−$3,426
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses31 / 79
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions3
Markets (closed)110 / 113
History coverage208d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $586 $570 −$16 (-3%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 56¢ 58¢ $464 $489 +$25 (+5%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $147 $151 +$4 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Rio 2026? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $78 $0 −$78 (-100%)
Will Vitality win the ESL Grand Slam at IEM Rio? No 39¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Will Vitality qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? No 5¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 18¢ 0¢ $155 $0 −$155 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs Spirit 30¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A G2 27¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A FaZe 10¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A FUT Esports 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Natus Vincere 24¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Gen.G 26¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 39¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs Team Falcons 32¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Spirit 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs Natus Vincere 18¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 18¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Team Falcons 32¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs FURIA 24¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Will Vitality win IEM Rio 2026? No 42¢ 0¢ $164 $0 −$164 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $65 +$103 +158%
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $159 −$155 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$4 +40%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $221 −$216 -98%
Will Vitality qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 13 $36 −$35 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $10 +$4 +36%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$4 +82%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $10 +$4 +36%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $37 +$422 +1140%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $40 −$39 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $10 +$7 +65%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 +$5 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $22 +$36 +161%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 07 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 07 $15 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 07 $21 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$6 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$2 +178%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $42 −$41 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $12 +$13 +109%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Vitality win IEM Atlanta 2026? May 16 $9 +$9 +97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $14 +$25 +174%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $11 −$11 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff May 03 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 02 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 30 $11 −$11 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 29 $3 +$2 +68%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $32 −$32 -98%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Rio 2026? Apr 19 $80 −$78 -98%
Will Vitality win IEM Rio 2026? Apr 18 $167 −$164 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Vitality win the ESL Grand Slam at IEM Rio? Apr 18 $40 −$39 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $39 +$66 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 15 $2 −$2 -93%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $3 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Apr 13 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Vitality win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? Apr 13 $59 −$52 -89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 59¢ $40 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $16 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $12 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $168 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 52¢ $5 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 56¢ $28 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 8¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $20 3h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 59¢ $29 3h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 3h
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 41¢ $10 3h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 3h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 4h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $20 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $6 5h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 9¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 11¢ $10 6h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 12¢ $5 6h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 15¢ $5 6h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 18¢ $2 6h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $3 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,210.32 · official $1,210.52 (match) · 600 history records