Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:04:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e3f…4da5 other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$45 (-23%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate28%12W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day19.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$66
sports 47% +$41
crypto 2% $0
weather 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-37.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -31.1% -37.7% 28% 21% -20.3%
≤30d 43 -31.1% -37.7% 28% 21% -20.3%
≤90d 43 -31.1% -37.7% 28% 21% -20.3%
all 43 -31.1% -37.7% 28% 21% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.7% 21% -20.3%
10% -43.7% 21% -27.9%
15% -49.1% 19% -34.9%
20% -54.1% 16% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -52% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses12 / 31
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)43 / 46
History coverage4d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Morocco? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Morocco leading at halftime? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $6 +$25 +413%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $6 $0 -0%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Canada? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $2 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? Jun 28 $4 −$3 -84%
Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 2 Uzbekistan? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 Portugal? Jun 28 $1 $0 -44%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $2 −$1 -68%
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 28 $6 +$2 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 28? Jun 27 $1 +$1 +84%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 27 $1 $0 +1%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 2 Ghana? Jun 27 $3 −$2 -80%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 $0 -48%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $7 −$7 -98%
Panama vs. England: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $2 +$4 +214%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $1 +$1 +84%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 27? Jun 27 $1 $0 +5%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Spain? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -67%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $11 −$11 -98%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -99%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain? Jun 27 $5 −$1 -21%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $6 +$2 +36%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 27 $3 +$6 +186%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 +$3 +33%
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Draw at halftime? Jun 26 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $15 −$5 -33%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $15 +$35 +229%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $5 −$1 -24%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 10h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $6 10h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 38h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 44h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 44h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 46h
Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 2 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 46h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 Portugal? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 46h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 46h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 Portugal? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 46h
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 46h
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 46h
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 47¢ $8 46h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 28? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 2d
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa SELL Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 2 Ghana? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 2 Ghana? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 2d
Panama vs. England: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 90¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 2d
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.71 · official $8.71 (match) · 85 history records