Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:57:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3E 0x3e3f…e9fb crypto 968 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 119d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,781 (-23%) realized −$3,781 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate80%832W / 204L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day22.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,329
7 days−$1,342
14 days−$1,347
30 days−$1,347
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$888
other 4% −$545
sports 3% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 408 -17.4% -25.3% 71% 12% -35.2%
≤30d 451 -15.9% -23.9% 73% 10% -32.3%
≤90d 451 -15.9% -23.9% 73% 10% -32.3%
all 1036 -6.4% -15.3% 80% 42% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 42% -22.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 5% -29.9%
15% -30.8% 4% -36.7%
20% -37.6% 3% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$20 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,781
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses832 / 204
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1036 / 968
History coverage119d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day22.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1036 Trades
no open positions (219 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +227%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records