Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:46:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3E 0x3e3d…13f0 sports 859 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 159d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$373 (+0%) realized +$373 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate97%830W / 29L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days+$3
14 days+$37
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$317
other 1% +$10
world 0% +$1
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +1.5% -8.1% 96% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 72 +2.4% -7.4% 99% 3% -8.4%
≤90d 316 +1.2% -8.4% 97% 2% -9.4%
all 859 +1.2% -8.5% 97% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 2% -9.2%
10% -17.2% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.2% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.6% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$54 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$373
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses830 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)859 / 859
History coverage159d ⚠
Avg bet$116
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 859 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien Jun 29 $110 +$2 +2%
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 29 $197 −$35 -18%
Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill Jun 29 $62 +$2 +3%
Wimbledon WTA: Jaqueline Cristian vs Iva Jovic Jun 29 $98 +$1 +1%
Wimbledon WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 29 $136 +$4 +3%
Wimbledon WTA: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva Jun 29 $20 +$1 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $530 +$7 +1%
Plovdiv: Sandro Kopp vs Dali Blanch Jun 25 $34 +$1 +2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jan Choinski vs Zizou Bergs Jun 25 $125 +$2 +1%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 25 $55 +$1 +2%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Christopher O'Conn Jun 25 $62 +$1 +2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 25 $97 +$1 +1%
Plovdiv: Daniel Michalski vs Inaki Montes Jun 25 $3 $0 +1%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva Jun 25 $14 $0 +3%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Fiona Crawley Jun 25 $50 $0 +1%
Mallorca Championships: Murphy Cassone vs Ethan Quinn Jun 24 $60 +$1 +2%
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse Jun 24 $155 +$2 +2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 24 $94 +$1 +1%
Targu Mures: Marko Topo vs Martin Krumich Jun 24 $52 $0 +1%
Plovdiv: Matteo Martineau vs Petr Nesterov Jun 24 $42 $0 +1%
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 24 $41 +$1 +2%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 23 $17 +$1 +5%
Mallorca Championships: Marc Polmans vs Grigor Dimitrov Jun 23 $13 +$1 +8%
Targu Mures: Ilia Simakin vs Marko Topo Jun 23 $77 +$1 +2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jasmine Paolini vs Tatjana Maria Jun 23 $124 +$2 +2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 23 $104 +$1 +1%
Mallorca Championships: Damir Dzumhur vs Vit Kopriva Jun 23 $12 $0 +3%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 23 $33 +$2 +5%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Borna Gojo Jun 22 $104 +$1 +1%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Daniil Glinka vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 22 $66 +$4 +6%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Federico Agustin Gomez vs Clement Tabur Jun 22 $30 +$1 +2%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Stefano Napolitano vs Billy Harris Jun 22 $103 +$1 +1%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Zsombor Piros vs Ivan Ivanov Jun 22 $33 $0 +1%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $16 +$1 +7%
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Alexandrova/Noskova vs Eikeri/Gle Jun 22 $12 +$2 +14%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $19 +$1 +6%
ITF Samobor: Nikita Mashtakov vs Nicolas Jadoun Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
ITF Ystad: Lea Nilsson vs Linea Bajraliu Jun 19 $99 +$1 +1%
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Adrienn Nagy Jun 19 $39 +$1 +2%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $136 +$13 +10%
ITF Klosters: Dylan Dietrich vs Adrien Burdet Jun 19 $15 $0 +1%
ITF Ystad: Lucie Petruzelova vs Valentina Steiner Jun 19 $23 +$1 +2%
ITF Klosters: Dominic Stephan Stricker vs Niklas Schell Jun 18 $76 +$1 +1%
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Jun 18 $55 +$1 +2%
ITF San Gregorio: Carmen Andreea Herea vs Sofia Rocchetti Jun 18 $21 $0 +1%
ITF Mohammedia: Clarissa Blomqvist vs Diae El Jardi Jun 18 $35 $0 +1%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $22 +$1 +2%
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Jiaqi Wang Jun 18 $55 +$1 +2%
ITF Taipei: Thasaporn Naklo vs Yuki Naito Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
ITF Mohammedia: Ksenia Krupenina vs Elina Nepliy Jun 17 $55 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Mananchaya Sawangkaew 99¢ $83 50m
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Mananchaya Sawangkaew 62¢ $23 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Mananchaya Sawangkaew 70¢ $5 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Mananchaya Sawangkaew 70¢ $6 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Mananchaya Sawangkaew 71¢ $4 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Mananchaya Sawangkaew 63¢ $13 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 98¢ $24 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 98¢ $10 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 99¢ $14 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 99¢ $63 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska 98¢ $34 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska 99¢ $5 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska 99¢ $5 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska 99¢ $5 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska 98¢ $1 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Maja Chwalinska 94¢ $13 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill BUY Rafael Jodar 95¢ $10 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Jaqueline Cristian vs Iva Jovic BUY Iva Jovic 99¢ $98 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva BUY Sara Sorribes Tormo 98¢ $20 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill BUY Rafael Jodar 97¢ $14 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill BUY Rafael Jodar 98¢ $10 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill BUY Rafael Jodar 98¢ $16 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill BUY Rafael Jodar 98¢ $9 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Darja Vidmanova BUY Jessica Pegula 96¢ $21 2h
Wimbledon ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Felix Gill BUY Rafael Jodar 98¢ $5 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Darja Vidmanova BUY Jessica Pegula 95¢ $19 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Jessica Pegula vs Darja Vidmanova BUY Jessica Pegula 98¢ $96 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 99¢ $47 33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 95¢ $85 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records