Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:20:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e37…dabc other 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 276d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate26%13W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$4
other 23% −$10
politics 12% $0
sports 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.3% -9.3% 40% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 19 +1.3% -8.4% 32% 5% -9.4%
≤90d 19 +1.3% -8.4% 32% 5% -9.4%
all 50 -1.8% -11.2% 26% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 4% -9.9%
10% -19.7% 4% -18.5%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

276d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses13 / 37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage276d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $68 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $62 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 20 $9 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $100 −$2 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $9 −$1 -8%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +30%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $163 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $130 +$4 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $92 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $59 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $57 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 08 $35 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $4 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 06 $59 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $58 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 05 $28 −$1 -4%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Mar 24 $46 $0 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Jan 31 $12 −$4 -38%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 30 $28 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 23 $4 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 22 $4 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 22 $8 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $23 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 20 $23 $0 -1%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 25 $23 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 24 $26 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 08 $41 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 07 $26 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 07 $2 $0 +25%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 01 $26 $0 -1%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $31 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $30 12h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $62 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $8 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $40 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $21 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $68 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $17 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $37 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $8 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $15 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $24 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $24 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $17 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 4d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 6d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 6d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 6d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $37 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $38 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 7d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.25 · official $0.00 (match) · 234 history records