Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:47:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3E 0x3e36…0f49 crypto 276 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-4%) realized −$84 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%132W / 143L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days−$124
14 days−$124
30 days−$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$121
politics 1% −$10
other 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 273 -7.0% -15.8% 48% 48% -15.9%
≤30d 273 -7.0% -15.8% 48% 48% -15.9%
≤90d 275 -7.7% -16.5% 48% 48% -16.7%
all 275 -7.7% -16.5% 48% 48% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 48% -16.7%
10% -24.4% 47% -24.7%
15% -31.7% 47% -32.0%
20% -38.4% 46% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses132 / 143
Open positions1
Markets (closed)275 / 276
History coverage32d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 275 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 52¢ 88¢ $4 $6 +$3 (+68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 110 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$8 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$8 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$7 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$8 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.31 · official $5.88 (match) · 511 history records