Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:05:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e33…dd67 sports 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$19 (-4%) realized −$55 · open +$36
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate43%9W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$185
7 days−$175
14 days−$175
30 days−$175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$137
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -11.8% -20.2% 43% 33% -46.6%
≤30d 21 -11.8% -20.2% 43% 33% -46.6%
≤90d 21 -11.8% -20.2% 43% 33% -46.6%
all 21 -11.8% -20.2% 43% 33% -46.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 33% -46.6%
10% -27.8% 29% -51.7%
15% -34.8% 29% -56.4%
20% -41.2% 29% -60.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$22 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses9 / 12
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage8d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fight to Go the Distance? Yes 12¢ 31¢ $20 $52 +$32 (+158%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 21¢ 26¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $161 −$159 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $31 +$1 +4%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $20 +$3 +14%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $61 +$45 +74%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $8 +$15 +185%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -85%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 14 $5 −$3 -54%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $5 −$3 -52%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $13 $0 +3%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 209.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$11 +216%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 12 $5 +$4 +79%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 11 $5 −$1 -19%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 09 $5 +$4 +73%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Dylan Harper win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $15 24m
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 25m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 61¢ $30 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 55¢ $30 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $41 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $15 2h
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL Yes 21¢ $32 2h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Michael Chandler 24¢ $23 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $106 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $30 13h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $30 13h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $36 13h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 13h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $20 13h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 28¢ $20 13h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 56¢ $61 13h
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL Yes $3 15h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $23 25h
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) SELL Knicks $0 25h
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) SELL Knicks 30¢ $2 25h
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) BUY Knicks 63¢ $5 25h
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) BUY Knicks 38¢ $2 25h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 44¢ $3 25h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 30¢ $5 26h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 SELL Over 10¢ $2 26h
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) SELL Spurs 18¢ $1 26h
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) SELL Knicks 67¢ $13 26h
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $3 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.60 · official $70.60 (match) · 49 history records