Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e33…0ed3 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$75 (-13%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate24%7W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days−$58
14 days−$80
30 days−$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$60
sports 6% +$8
crypto 6% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-46.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -34.1% -40.4% 23% 18% -19.2%
≤30d 29 -40.6% -46.3% 24% 21% -22.3%
≤90d 29 -40.6% -46.3% 24% 21% -22.3%
all 29 -40.6% -46.3% 24% 21% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.3% 21% -22.3%
10% -51.4% 21% -29.8%
15% -56.1% 10% -36.6%
20% -60.4% 7% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -79% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses7 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage14d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $140 +$4 +3%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -88%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $54 +$25 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$9 -4%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 −$2 -13%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $28 −$2 -8%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +307%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -77%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$6 -79%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $4 +$5 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -26%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $44 −$39 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -81%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $22 −$19 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 58m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $87 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $87 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $57 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $52 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $79 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 12h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 64¢ $97 29h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 29h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $13 30h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $25 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 64¢ $96 30h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 30h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $28 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 30h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 31h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 33h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $2 36h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 36h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $6 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $2 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.83 · official $2.83 (match) · 85 history records