Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:50:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

3E 0x3e32…b8d2 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$168 (+18%) realized +$479 · open −$311

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip

Net edge+9%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$239per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+13.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+25.3%	+13.4%	33%	33%	-39.2%
≤30d	3	+25.3%	+13.4%	33%	33%	-39.2%
≤90d	3	+25.3%	+13.4%	33%	33%	-39.2%
all	3	+25.3%	+13.4%	33%	33%	-39.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+13.4%	33%	-39.2%
10%	+2.5%	33%	-45.0%
15%	-7.4%	33%	-50.3%
20%	-16.5%	33%	-55.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -33% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +25% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$271 vs −$226 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.6 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$80

Realized+$479

Unrealized−$311

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$239

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	27¢	6¢	$390	$80	−$311 (-80%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$360	−$354	-99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$98	+$271	+276%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$99	−$97	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	27¢	$399	2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	51¢	$360	4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	100¢	$369	4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	26¢	$98	5h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	7¢	$99	5h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.52 · official $108.44 · 5 history records