Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:55:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e2c…fa8b crypto 139 markets active 2h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-0%) realized −$33 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate58%79W / 58L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% +$10
other 12% +$14
tech 5% −$97
economics 4% −$1
sports 4% +$18
world 2% $0
weather 2% +$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 +0.9% -8.7% 29% 7% -8.8%
≤90d 52 +2.5% -7.2% 37% 8% -13.2%
all 137 +0.2% -9.3% 58% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 6% -9.7%
10% -18.0% 3% -18.3%
15% -25.9% 3% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$12 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses79 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)137 / 139
History coverage181d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 16¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 28 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 27 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 22 $26 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $26 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 12 $26 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? Jun 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close Jun 07 $26 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close Jun 06 $26 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $26 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 04 $23 +$3 +14%
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 02 $23 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 01 $23 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 29 $23 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 27? May 27 $23 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 27 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 27 $20 $0 +1%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? May 26 $20 $0 -2%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? May 25 $20 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $3 +$8 +276%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $16 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? May 18 $16 $0 -0%
Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 18 $16 $0 -0%
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? May 15 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or below on May 12? May 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 9? May 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 8? May 09 $16 $0 -0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? May 08 $14 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 19 $136 −$131 -97%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 19 $267 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $1 +$2 +226%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 18 $131 +$4 +3%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 16 $131 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $131 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 14? Apr 15 $131 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 14? Apr 14 $131 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 13? Apr 14 $131 $0 +0%
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 13 $131 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 11? Apr 13 $131 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 11 $131 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 11 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 10 $131 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 3? Apr 03 $131 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $26 25h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $26 43h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $26 43h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $26 6d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $26 6d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $26 10d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 14d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 14d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 15d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $0 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $26 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $26 18d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $26 18d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $26 21d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close SELL No 100¢ $23 21d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close SELL No 100¢ $1 21d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close SELL No 100¢ $2 21d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $300B and $400B at market close BUY No 100¢ $26 22d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close SELL No 100¢ $26 22d
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close BUY No 100¢ $26 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $26 24d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $26 24d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $23 27d
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 27d
Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 27d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 89¢ $23 28d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 89¢ $23 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 100¢ $23 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.25 · official $26.25 (match) · 395 history records