Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:27:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e2c…9642 sports 241 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$96 (-1%) realized −$93 · open −$228
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate24%54W / 173L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day24.6pace
Fees−$151est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$335
7 days+$1,388
14 days+$1,388
30 days+$1,388
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$337
other 15% −$63
crypto 1% +$77
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +99.8% +80.8% 37% 37% +71.1%
≤30d 30 +99.8% +80.8% 37% 37% +71.1%
≤90d 227 -18.5% -26.2% 24% 19% -10.6%
all 227 -18.5% -26.2% 24% 19% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.2% 19% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -33.3% 16% -19.1%
15% -39.7% 12% -27.0%
20% -45.7% 11% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$17 · ×3.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized−$93
Unrealized−$228
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses54 / 173
Est. fees paid−$151
Open positions14
Markets (closed)227 / 241
History coverage72d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day24.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 227 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? No 18¢ 6¢ $160 $48 −$112 (-70%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? No 9¢ 8¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 11¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+117%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 20¢ 1¢ $75 $3 −$72 (-96%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Under 10¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Under 12¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $36 +$90 +251%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $93 +$77 +83%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $34 +$66 +197%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $20 +$80 +388%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 +$136 +442%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $143 +$107 +75%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $122 −$120 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $4 +$77 +1914%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$242 +785%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $32 −$31 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Neither team to score first? Jun 11 $12 −$12 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $16 −$15 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $45 −$44 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $14 −$13 -97%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? Jun 11 $80 −$69 -87%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MV Jun 11 $28 +$18 +65%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $318 −$29 -9%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Jun 11 $200 +$1,131 +567%
Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 202 Apr 30 $28 +$2 +8%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Apr 19 $752 −$208 -28%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Apr 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $238 −$230 -97%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Apr 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Apr 19 $306 −$145 -48%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Apr 19 $159 −$159 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $82 −$82 -100%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Apr 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Apr 19 $106 −$106 -100%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Apr 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Apr 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Atlanta Hawks advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NB Apr 19 $2 −$1 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Apr 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 5¢ $10 4m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 9¢ $31 54m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 12¢ $21 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 26¢ $51 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $21 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 1h
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $71 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $21 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $126 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $15 7h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 14¢ $10 7h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 8h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $41 8h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 8h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $39 8h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 33¢ $34 10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 BUY Over 7¢ $8 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $54 12h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 20¢ $20 17h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 7¢ $5 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 22h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.89 · official $342.47 · 1929 history records