Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:51:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

3E 0x3e2b…e550 crypto 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$419 (-9%) realized −$407 · open −$12

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +43% what you keep after slip

Net edge+43%after slip

Net WR43%break-even

Win rate43%9W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$158per market

Trades / day1.8pace

Fees−$31est.

Kalshi-fit83%portable

Net worth$213now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$118

7 days+$430

14 days+$570

30 days+$232

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +43%

net ROI/market (all)+43.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+236.6%	+204.6%	50%	50%	+176.8%
≤30d	21	+58.2%	+43.1%	43%	43%	+5.6%
≤90d	21	+58.2%	+43.1%	43%	43%	+5.6%
all	21	+58.2%	+43.1%	43%	43%	+5.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+43.1%	43%	+5.6%
10%	+29.4%	38%	-4.5%
15%	+16.9%	33%	-13.7%
20%	+5.4%	33%	-22.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 48% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +58% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -33% → late +141% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$127 vs −$76 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.26 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage

Net worth$213

Realized−$407

Unrealized−$12

Win rate (resolved)43%

Wins / losses9 / 12

Est. fees paid−$31

Open positions3

Markets (closed)21 / 30

History coverage20d

Avg bet$158

Trades / day1.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	74¢	74¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	14¢	$100	$87	−$13 (-13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	19¢	$25	$28	+$3 (+10%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score AND Will Algeria win on 2026-0	Jun 23	$10	+$22	+211%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	Jun 23	$41	−$40	-99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan?	Jun 23	$103	−$100	-98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-0	Jun 19	$59	+$549	+936%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A	Jun 17	$21	+$105	+513%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 14	$20	+$35	+172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Jun 09	$4	−$4	-100%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 09	$30	−$30	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Jun 08	$20	+$5	+26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Jun 08	$315	−$315	-100%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 06	$102	+$192	+188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Jun 06	$5	+$5	+97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Jun 04	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Jun 04	$52	−$21	-41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Jun 04	$134	−$130	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Jun 04	$105	+$208	+198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Jun 04	$31	−$30	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Jun 04	$104	−$104	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Jun 04	$27	−$25	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Jun 04	$104	−$104	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Jun 04	$101	+$20	+20%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	74¢	$101	1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 AND England to score first vs. Ghana? AND W	BUY	80¢	$50	22h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score AND Will Algeria win on 2026-0	BUY	32¢	$10	29h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	53¢	$41	29h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	14¢	$103	29h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 AND W	BUY	22¢	$358	30h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will	BUY	23¢	$299	3d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND	BUY	14¢	$308	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-	BUY	11¢	$2,000	5d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-0	BUY	9¢	$59	5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Wi	BUY	16¢	$103	6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A	BUY	16¢	$21	8d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	36¢	$20	12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	BUY Up	66¢	$4	14d
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	49¢	$30	15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Down	78¢	$20	15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	BUY Down	26¢	$261	16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	BUY Down	30¢	$55	16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$5	18d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$26	19d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$103	19d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	34¢	$102	19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$5	19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	BUY Up	11¢	$5	19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	BUY Up	21¢	$26	19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	BUY Up	73¢	$102	19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	BUY Down	12¢	$27	19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	SELL Up	72¢	$31	19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$26	19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	BUY Up	32¢	$105	19d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $213.49 · official $213.49 (match) · 72 history records