Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:01:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3E 0x3e29…b3e1 other 23 markets active 2d ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$14 (+2%) realized +$11 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$596now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$8
crypto 36% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+33.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +47.8% +33.7% 100% 100% +33.7%
≤30d 1 +47.8% +33.7% 100% 100% +33.7%
≤90d 1 +47.8% +33.7% 100% 100% +33.7%
all 1 +47.8% +33.7% 100% 100% +33.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +33.7% 100% +33.7%
10% +20.9% 100% +20.9%
15% +9.2% 100% +9.2%
20% -1.5% 0% -1.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$596
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Open positions22
Markets (closed)1 / 23
History coverage4d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? No 78¢ 84¢ $93 $99 +$7 (+7%)
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 81¢ $94 $97 +$3 (+3%)
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $45 $43 −$2 (-4%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? No 83¢ 88¢ $37 $39 +$2 (+5%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 78¢ 84¢ $35 $38 +$3 (+8%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 95¢ 90¢ $37 $35 −$2 (-5%)
Will South Korea be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+3%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 92¢ $24 $27 +$3 (+13%)
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 92¢ $23 $27 +$4 (+19%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 86¢ $23 $25 +$2 (+7%)
Will Austria be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup? No 73¢ 76¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+3%)
Will Croatia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 82¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Croatia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? No 74¢ 81¢ $13 $15 +$1 (+9%)
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 96¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+23%)
Will Ivory Coast be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup? No 62¢ 89¢ $9 $12 +$4 (+43%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 28¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-14%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 79¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-10%)
Will Austria finish second in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 62¢ 36¢ $18 $10 −$8 (-42%)
Will South Korea finish second in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 42¢ 20¢ $16 $8 −$9 (-52%)
Will Croatia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 39¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ivory Coast finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 67¢ 30¢ $9 $4 −$5 (-55%)
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $26 +$13 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $24 2d
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 78¢ $35 4d
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 4d
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $38 4d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 67¢ $26 4d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 95¢ $37 4d
Will South Korea finish second in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G BUY No 42¢ $17 4d
Will South Korea be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2 BUY No 84¢ $33 4d
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $58 5d
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $57 5d
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $28 5d
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $24 5d
Will Austria be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 SELL No 68¢ $20 5d
Will Austria be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 BUY No 73¢ $21 5d
Will Austria be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 BUY No 73¢ $21 5d
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 78¢ $23 5d
Will Austria finish second in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY No 62¢ $18 5d
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $36 5d
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $37 5d
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $18 5d
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $12 6d
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 78¢ $11 6d
Will Ivory Coast be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2 BUY No 62¢ $9 6d
Will Ivory Coast finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G BUY No 67¢ $9 6d
Will Croatia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $15 6d
Will Croatia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $13 6d
Will Croatia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $596.44 · official $596.46 (match) · 29 history records