Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:39:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3E 0x3e29…cc9a other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$9 (+3%) realized +$21 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +39% what you keep after slip
Net edge+39%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$46
politics 20% −$53
sports 10% +$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+38.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +53.3% +38.7% 50% 50% +45.7%
≤30d 4 +53.3% +38.7% 50% 50% +45.7%
≤90d 4 +53.3% +38.7% 50% 50% +45.7%
all 4 +53.3% +38.7% 50% 50% +45.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +38.7% 50% +45.7%
10% +25.4% 50% +31.8%
15% +13.3% 50% +19.1%
20% +2.2% 50% +7.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +61% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +53% · $-wt +61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$28 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.4 per $1 lost it wins $2.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)4 / 9
History coverage14d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $9 $1 −$8 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $41 +$60 +146%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 22 $47 −$45 -95%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $28 +$72 +262%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.20 · official $147.20 (match) · 15 history records