Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:36:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3E 0x3e28…2ef4 sports 99 markets active 16h ago coverage 394d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$928 (+9%) realized +$924 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%50W / 48L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$117est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$240
7 days+$526
14 days+$724
30 days+$750
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$903
other 10% −$80
crypto 1% −$50
politics 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -3.1% -12.4% 59% 59% +1.0%
≤30d 91 -8.5% -17.3% 51% 51% -2.0%
≤90d 97 -8.5% -17.2% 52% 52% -2.3%
all 98 -9.4% -18.0% 51% 51% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 51% -2.8%
10% -25.9% 45% -12.1%
15% -33.0% 37% -20.6%
20% -39.6% 27% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$62 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

394d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized+$924
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses50 / 48
Est. fees paid−$117
Open positions1
Markets (closed)98 / 99
History coverage394d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $305 +$109 +36%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $102 +$116 +114%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $102 +$103 +101%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 +$53 +52%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $101 +$60 +59%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $455 +$254 +56%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$45 +89%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $101 +$28 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $201 +$49 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $101 +$25 +25%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$77 +76%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $101 +$83 +82%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$31 +30%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $100 +$16 +16%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 +$42 +82%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $201 +$32 +16%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $31 +$64 +210%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $201 +$31 +16%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $203 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $202 +$84 +41%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $51 +$39 +76%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $202 +$101 +50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $204 +$251 +123%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $101 +$77 +76%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $133 −$130 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $122 −$120 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $101 +$90 +89%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $51 +$44 +86%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $101 +$55 +54%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $223 −$10 -4%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $153 −$150 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $51 +$19 +37%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $21 +$122 +596%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $102 16h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 43¢ $191 16h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $217 16h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $203 16h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 17h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $102 21h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $101 39h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $101 47h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $161 47h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 62¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 5¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 26¢ $31 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 26¢ $102 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 74¢ $275 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $101 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $201 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 20¢ $49 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $96 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $51 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $51 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Mauricio Ruffy 100¢ $125 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $201 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $101 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 80¢ $101 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $178 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $184 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.77 · official $103.77 (match) · 180 history records