Wallet analysis — Alpha Desk

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days−$161

30 days−$161

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$441	$661	+$220 (+50%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$375	$312	−$62 (-17%)
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	Yes	4¢	1¢	$834	$161	−$673 (-81%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Jun 04	$209	−$152	-73%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me	May 31	$44	−$9	-21%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

economics 90% −$524

politics 10% −$152

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	3h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me	BUY Yes	0¢	$5	3h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee	BUY Yes	0¢	$393	11h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me	BUY Yes	0¢	$458	11h
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	BUY Yes	2¢	$56	7d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	SELL Yes	7¢	$57	7d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY Yes	23¢	$3	9d
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	BUY Yes	4¢	$256	9d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY Yes	24¢	$206	10d
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	BUY Yes	7¢	$105	10d
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	BUY Yes	5¢	$210	10d
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	BUY Yes	4¢	$210	10d
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	BUY Yes	2¢	$3	10d
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting?	BUY Yes	2¢	$35	11d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me	SELL Yes	1¢	$35	11d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me	BUY Yes	1¢	$44	15d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me	SELL Yes	0¢	$44	15d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me	BUY Yes	1¢	$68	15d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-51.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	2	-46.8%	-51.8%	0%	0%	-67.1%
≤90d	2	-46.8%	-51.8%	0%	0%	-67.1%
all	2	-46.8%	-51.8%	0%	0%	-67.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover1.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-51.8%	0%	-67.1%
10%	-56.4%	0%	-70.3%
15%	-60.6%	0%	-73.1%
20%	-64.5%	0%	-75.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.