Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:13:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3E 0x3e26…3edf crypto 418 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (153 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13,796 (-102%) realized −$13,475 · open −$321
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate33%220W / 446L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day153.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,297now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$1,366
other 8% −$246
world 3% +$303
sports 2% +$120
politics 1% −$97
tech 1% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (153 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-48.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 307 -71.8% -74.5% 5% 5% -96.1%
≤30d 666 -42.8% -48.2% 33% 10% -73.8%
≤90d 666 -42.8% -48.2% 33% 10% -73.8%
all 666 -42.8% -48.2% 33% 10% -73.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover153.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -48.2% 10% -73.8%
10% ← realistic here -53.2% 8% -76.3%
15% -57.7% 8% -78.6%
20% -61.9% 6% -80.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -71% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -71% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -17% → late -68% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$64 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$1,297
Realized−$13,475
Unrealized−$321
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses220 / 446
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions61
Markets (closed)666 / 418
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$32
Trades / day153.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 61 History 666 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $61 $68 +$8 (+13%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $60 $68 +$8 (+13%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $100 $61 −$39 (-39%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 10¢ 8¢ $60 $51 −$9 (-15%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $55 $51 −$4 (-8%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 21¢ $60 $44 −$16 (-26%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $45 $44 −$2 (-3%)
Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2026? No 19¢ 40¢ $20 $42 +$22 (+110%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $45 $39 −$6 (-14%)
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 28¢ 32¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+16%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+13%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Japanese parliament dissolved in 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31? Yes 12¢ 5¢ $60 $25 −$35 (-59%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-18%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 42¢ 32¢ $30 $23 −$7 (-24%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $10 $22 +$12 (+121%)
Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch? No 36¢ 38¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in NVIDIA Corporation? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 439 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $28 −$28 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17) Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 22 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 22 $49 −$36 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $400 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 22 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 23 and May 29? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 22 $155 −$107 -70%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will May 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record? Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $35 −$19 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 22 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 22 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 14? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump announce a US-China Board of Trade? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 11-17? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will MrBeast say "World Cup" during his next YouTube video? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $20 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 35¢ $10 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 10¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $46 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,296.63 · official $1,303.18 (match) · 3500 history records