Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:39:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3E 0x3e24…f1bd world 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$63,420 (+19%) realized +$63,353 · open +$67
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate67%32W / 16L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$6,744per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$171est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$405now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,434
7 days+$1,159
14 days+$12,001
30 days+$12,933
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% +$13,481
sports 23% +$10,507
world 20% +$20,499
other 5% +$4,954
crypto 2% +$10,943
economics 2% +$1,316
tech 0% −$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +30.3% +17.9% 75% 25% -1.4%
≤30d 8 +49.2% +35.0% 88% 62% +43.7%
≤90d 16 +13.3% +2.5% 75% 56% +14.0%
all 48 +6.7% -3.5% 67% 46% +7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.5% 46% +7.0%
10% ← realistic here -12.7% 27% -3.2%
15% -21.1% 15% -12.6%
20% -28.9% 15% -21.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$6,188) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,259 vs −$672 · ×3.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.73 per $1 lost it wins $6.73
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$405
Realized+$63,353
Unrealized+$67
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses32 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$171
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage592d
Avg bet$6,744
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 42¢ 100¢ $90 $215 +$125 (+138%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic 95¢ 73¢ $248 $190 −$58 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,443 −$1,443 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $91 +$9 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $856 +$1,739 +203%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10,526 +$854 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $75 +$26 +35%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $6,188 +$10,816 +175%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $2,182 +$753 +34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $626 +$179 +29%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 15 $844 +$158 +19%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 14 $6,399 −$5,968 -93%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $29,608 +$5,471 +18%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $14,803 +$8,127 +55%
WTT - Men's Singles: South Korea vs China May 08 $349 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 28 $61 −$61 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 06 $18,130 +$3,370 +19%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 14 $17,422 +$5,909 +34%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Mar 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the government shutdown end November 12? Mar 12 $2,567 −$1,769 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 12 $0 +$2 +426%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 12 $151 +$236 +156%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Mar 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 28 $399 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $7,939 +$631 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Feb 26 $100 −$44 -44%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Feb 26 $4,429 +$211 +5%
Cowboys vs. Raiders Feb 26 $185 −$185 -100%
US forces in Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Jan 03 $581 −$530 -91%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Dec 04 $4,461 +$2,839 +64%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$5B one day after launch? Nov 25 $54 −$35 -65%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Nov 25 $62 −$57 -93%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Nov 15 $5,264 +$1,316 +25%
Will the government shutdown end November 13? Nov 13 $342 −$38 -11%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $8,670 +$1,077 +12%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 25? Nov 05 $817 +$92 +11%
Will Trump pardon SBF by October 31? Nov 03 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Nov 03 $65 +$51 +79%
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $8,318 +$2,435 +29%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in October? Oct 30 $3,092 +$11 +0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 29 $4,763 +$142 +3%
Will the Government shutdown end October 23-26? Oct 27 $1,007 +$3 +0%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025? Oct 27 $75 +$16 +21%
Blue Jays vs. Dodgers Oct 27 $5,000 $0 -0%
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  23? Jun 23 $983 −$488 -50%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 23 $20,955 +$4,576 +22%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 23 $651 +$142 +22%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $146,118 +$21,083 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 26¢ $1 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 26¢ $6 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 26¢ $4 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 26¢ $4 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 26¢ $4 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 26¢ $4 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 26¢ $7 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 26¢ $2 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 26¢ $1 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 91¢ $819 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 91¢ $100 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 91¢ $493 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $91 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 33¢ $856 2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $19 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $159 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $12 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $620 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 92¢ $8,964 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $652 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $90 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $39 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $62 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $75 8d
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? BUY Anthropic 95¢ $248 15d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $3,222 15d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $20 15d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $122 15d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $6 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $404.93 · official $404.93 (match) · 522 history records