Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:05:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3E 0x3e1c…53f2 other 349 markets active 1h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$964 (+3%) realized +$847 · open +$117
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%139W / 186L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$95est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$1,828now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$335
7 days+$171
14 days+$48
30 days+$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$103
sports 18% +$215
politics 10% +$252
culture 5% +$238
world 4% −$400
tech 1% +$515
crypto 0% −$57
economics 0% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +18.4% +7.1% 41% 36% +1.5%
≤30d 40 +34.9% +22.0% 42% 40% -6.1%
≤90d 222 +1.9% -7.8% 39% 38% -13.5%
all 325 +4.8% -5.1% 43% 40% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 40% -7.7%
10% -14.2% 37% -16.6%
15% -22.5% 33% -24.6%
20% -30.1% 27% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$68 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$1,828
Realized+$847
Unrealized+$117
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses139 / 186
Est. fees paid−$95
Open positions24
Markets (closed)325 / 349
History coverage239d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 325 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 76¢ 90¢ $380 $452 +$72 (+19%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 93¢ $109 $112 +$3 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 92¢ $103 $106 +$3 (+3%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 34¢ 34¢ $106 $105 −$2 (-1%)
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 69¢ $89 $93 +$4 (+5%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 24¢ 24¢ $95 $93 −$2 (-2%)
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 76¢ $82 $87 +$6 (+7%)
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 38¢ $42 $82 +$41 (+97%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 36¢ 36¢ $83 $82 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 71¢ $80 $82 +$1 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 40¢ 40¢ $82 $81 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 50¢ 54¢ $73 $79 +$6 (+8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 82¢ $70 $69 −$2 (-2%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 58¢ $69 $67 −$2 (-2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 37¢ 36¢ $54 $53 −$1 (-1%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 45¢ 40¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-11%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? No 44¢ 44¢ $44 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $44 $42 −$1 (-3%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+37%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $110 +$340 +307%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $181 −$5 -3%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $110 −$108 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $179 −$175 -98%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $22 +$15 +72%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $21 +$79 +365%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $60 +$39 +65%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 14 $16 −$15 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $18 +$1 +4%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $76 −$74 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $84 −$83 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $122 −$74 -61%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $40 +$51 +129%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $50 +$85 +172%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $81 +$314 +388%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 13 $83 −$82 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $37 −$36 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $35 +$37 +105%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $35 +$29 +83%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 09 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $6 −$1 -14%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $6 +$1 +15%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Roma finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season? Jun 07 $56 +$27 +49%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 07 $101 −$57 -56%
UFC Fight Night: Bernardo Sopaj vs. Timmy Cuamba (Bantamweight, Main C Jun 07 $36 −$36 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai Jun 07 $56 −$56 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Manchester United finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Prem Jun 07 $135 −$135 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 07 $268 −$268 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $94 −$94 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $25 +$378 +1500%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $134 +$76 +57%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $133 +$105 +79%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $80 +$52 +65%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $29 +$56 +198%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 12 $217 −$97 -45%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 12 $247 −$14 -6%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 10 $57 −$57 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $36 +$139 +388%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $112 +$163 +146%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) May 10 $162 +$113 +70%
UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims) May 10 $86 −$86 -100%
UFC 328: Djorden Santos vs. Baisangur Susurkaev (Middleweight, Early P May 10 $44 −$44 -100%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $650 −$23 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 54m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 37¢ $55 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 36¢ $29 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 36¢ $55 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 34¢ $109 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $45 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $44 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $84 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $97 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $33 45h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 45h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 45h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 45h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 45h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 45h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 45h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 45h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 46h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $60 46h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 46h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 46h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 46h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 46h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 46h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 46h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $15 46h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 46h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,828.20 · official $1,828.22 (match) · 1153 history records