Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:43:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3E 0x3e1b…aa71 sports 1203 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$305 (+7%) realized +$313 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%445W / 732L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days+$56
14 days+$125
30 days+$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$102
other 8% +$4
crypto 7% +$84
world 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 154 +3.3% -6.6% 49% 49% -3.0%
≤30d 725 -1.2% -10.6% 39% 39% -4.9%
≤90d 1177 +1.6% -8.1% 38% 38% -5.0%
all 1177 +1.6% -8.1% 38% 38% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 38% -5.0%
10% -16.9% 38% -14.1%
15% -24.9% 37% -22.4%
20% -32.3% 36% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized+$313
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses445 / 732
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions25
Markets (closed)1177 / 1203
History coverage67d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 1177 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Over 52¢ 80¢ $6 $10 +$3 (+54%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Over 55¢ 64¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+16%)
GV CD San José vs. CD Real Tomayapo: O/U 2.5 Under 35¢ 48¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+39%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ 100¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+89%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 52¢ 52¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Colorado Rockies 35¢ 90¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+156%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Over 52¢ 48¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 50¢ 41¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-18%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Baltimore Orioles 43¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Over 38¢ 56¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+46%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 49¢ 48¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Over 61¢ 58¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Over 54¢ 29¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-46%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Over 47¢ 28¢ $6 $3 −$2 (-39%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 53¢ 62¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+17%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 Over 43¢ 24¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-45%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ 55¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+27%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Under 47¢ 53¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+13%)
Will Club Aurora vs. Club ABB end in a draw? Yes 40¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+21%)
Club Always Ready vs. FC Universitario: O/U 2.5 Under 24¢ 46¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+94%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 51¢ 18¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-65%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Over 50¢ 12¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-77%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates 43¢ 12¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-73%)
Will GV CD San José vs. CD Real Tomayapo end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Over 49¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $7 +$7 +105%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $7 +$7 +97%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $6 +$7 +119%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $3 +$3 +83%
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Londrina EC vs. Avaí FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $4 +$6 +134%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $8 +$6 +79%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $7 +$5 +79%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $8 +$7 +79%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $7 +$7 +105%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $6 +$5 +86%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $3 +$5 +158%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $3 $0 -3%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $6 +$7 +105%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Botafogo FC vs. Operário Ferroviário EC end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $4 +$4 +86%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $5 +$8 +172%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $7 +$5 +76%
Will Wydad Athletic Club win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 61¢ $4 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 47¢ $6 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 43¢ $4 2h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 43¢ $6 2h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 43¢ $5 2h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 52¢ $7 2h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 51¢ $6 2h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 3h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $7 3h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 54¢ $7 3h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 35¢ $3 3h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $7 3h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ $4 3h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 48¢ $7 4h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 42¢ $3 4h
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $1 4h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 48¢ $7 4h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 54¢ $8 4h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 38¢ $5 4h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 43¢ $5 4h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 55¢ $8 4h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 45¢ $6 4h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 43¢ $6 4h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 48¢ $4 4h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 50¢ $4 4h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 48¢ $6 25h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ $6 25h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 54¢ $3 26h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 56¢ $7 26h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 44¢ $5 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.70 · official $107.70 (match) · 2541 history records