Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:24:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3E 0x3e1a…5243 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-10%) realized −$18 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -78% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -81% what you keep after slip
Net edge-81%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$7
other 29% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-80.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -78.5% -80.6% 17% 17% -21.7%
≤30d 6 -78.5% -80.6% 17% 17% -21.7%
≤90d 6 -78.5% -80.6% 17% 17% -21.7%
all 6 -78.5% -80.6% 17% 17% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -80.6% 17% -21.7%
10% -82.4% 17% -29.2%
15% -84.1% 0% -36.1%
20% -85.7% 0% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -79% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$9 · ×2.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage3d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? Jun 28 $94 +$27 +29%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $121 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 77¢ $94 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 20h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 22h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 35¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.61 · official $21.61 (match) · 15 history records