Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3E 0x3e1a…a659 sports 904 markets active 1h ago coverage 203d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$395 (-2%) realized −$391 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%422W / 479L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$91est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$162
7 days−$185
14 days+$498
30 days+$543
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$568
other 7% +$118
crypto 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -35.6% -41.8% 33% 33% -34.7%
≤30d 91 -25.0% -32.2% 40% 38% +12.9%
≤90d 523 -44.2% -49.6% 28% 27% -37.1%
all 901 -9.1% -17.8% 47% 44% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 44% -12.1%
10% -25.6% 41% -20.5%
15% -32.8% 37% -28.2%
20% -39.4% 29% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -57% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$12 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized−$391
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses422 / 479
Est. fees paid−$91
Open positions3
Markets (closed)901 / 904
History coverage203d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 901 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 56¢ 55¢ $98 $95 −$3 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Aurora Gaming 54¢ 51¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $10 +$5 +52%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $10 +$6 +62%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $10 +$6 +57%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 16 $15 +$14 +90%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $66 −$66 -99%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$6 -56%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -51%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +38%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $21 −$2 -11%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 −$6 -60%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $21 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $17 −$17 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $5 −$5 -91%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $9 +$7 +73%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $4 +$5 +119%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $10 −$1 -5%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $10 −$4 -44%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $26 +$19 +73%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $33 +$19 +57%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $13 +$8 +62%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 +$5 +50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $9 +$4 +50%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $36 +$19 +55%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $73 +$36 +49%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $706 +$624 +88%
First Blood in Game 1? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 54¢ $97 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 65¢ $10 14h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 61¢ $10 14h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 63¢ $10 15h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 76¢ $1 15h
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY Leviatán Esports 52¢ $15 15h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 54¢ $24 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $203 24h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 60¢ $16 35h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 76¢ $50 36h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 36h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 36h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $18 36h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 15¢ $4 36h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $20 36h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $10 37h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 44¢ $17 37h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL XLG Gaming 1¢ $0 37h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 10¢ $5 37h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $16 37h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 7¢ $2 39h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 9¢ $2 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $3 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $2 44h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 44h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 44h
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.95 · official $118.95 (match) · 2224 history records