Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:45:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
3E 0x3e19…002e weather 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$27 (+33%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$4
weather 40% +$17
sports 15% +$15
crypto 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +33.3% +20.6% 56% 56% +20.1%
≤30d 9 +33.3% +20.6% 56% 56% +20.1%
≤90d 9 +33.3% +20.6% 56% 56% +20.1%
all 9 +33.3% +20.6% 56% 56% +20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.6% 56% +20.1%
10% +9.1% 56% +8.6%
15% -1.5% 56% -1.9%
20% -11.1% 44% -11.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$6 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $19 +$12 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $7 +$5 +74%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $15 +$8 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$22 +474%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 −$15 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records